[Playing with numbers]
Bill --
I'll need your help with Westell numbers because I simply don't know them. That being the case, I'll do an analysis on Amati based on numbers gleened from analyst reports, from JS's conference call, and from those I've heard personally. I have no '98 figures for Taiwan, so I threw in a guess. For HKT, GTE, and Siemens, I took the bottom end of the range wherever one was given.
Amati in '97:
BCTEL -- 2,000
HKT -- 500
Siemens - 500
GTE -- 2,000
Taiwan -- 1,000
6,000 X $500 = $3M
Amati in '98:
BCTEL -- 30,000
HKT -- 80,000
GTE -- 200,000 (the earlier figure of 500K seems extremely optimistic and I prefer to err on the side of caution)
Taiwan -- 30,000
Siemens -- 60,000
400,000 lines X $400 = $160M
You can take this further and calculate the margins, divided by number of shares, times whatever multiple you think is reasonable, and come up with an estimated share price.
What's important, now, is to factor in Westell, add in licensing revenues, and go from there.
I welcome any corrections or suggestions. If you've read the most recent analyst reports, you'll notice no one projects numbers of lines.
Regards,
Pat
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