these bozos are makin' us look bad.................
Bank of England May Cut as Mortgage `Panic' Spreads (Update1)
By Brian Swint
April 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England may be forced to cut its main interest rate this week as the credit squeeze spreads to the mortgage market, exacerbating the worst housing downturn since the last recession in 1991.
HSBC Holdings Plc, Nationwide Building Society and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc are raising loan rates or withdrawing their best offers in order to shore up balance sheets. That's dulling the impact of the central bank's two rate cuts since December and making it harder for policy makers to protect the economy.
``This is a panic,'' said Nigel Welch, 54, director of mortgage broker TS Mackenzie in London's fashionable Islington neighborhood. ``Mortgages are more expensive and harder to get. I've had to turn away some people that I know won't find the loan that they need.''
The mortgage market has tightened this month as banks scramble to conserve cash and stem a credit binge that fueled the country's decade-long housing boom. The number of home-loan products on offer declined by 21 percent in the past two weeks to 4,499 on April 4, says Moneyfacts Group, a financial Web site.
The pound fell today against 14 of the 16 most-traded currencies today, including the dollar and euro, on speculation the Bank of England will cut its benchmark rate this week. The currency traded at $1.9885 and 79.06 pence per euro, as of 11:17 a.m. in London.
Rate Forecasts
Worsening credit conditions spurred economists at Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America to change their forecast last week and predict the Bank of England will take action on April 10.
Forty-nine of the 61 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predict policy makers, led by Governor Mervyn King, will cut their benchmark rate by a quarter point to 5 percent this week. That would still be the highest among the Group of Seven nations and compare with the Federal Reserve's main rate of 2.25 percent and the European Central Bank's 4 percent.
The cost of borrowing pounds for three months was at 5.98 percent on April 4 after reaching 6.01 percent last week, the highest level since December.
More expensive mortgages are increasing the burden on consumers already shouldering a record 1.4 trillion pounds ($2.8 trillion) in personal debt.
`Horrible Shock'
``This has been a horrible shock,'' said Sue Freeman, 43, a health researcher living in North London. She comes off a five- year mortgage rate of 4.65 percent next month and her lender wouldn't offer a new deal below 7 percent. ``I went into panic mode. I thought we'll never be able to afford a mortgage again.''
HBOS Plc, the U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender, said April 4 that its Halifax unit will increase the interest rate payments for customers who provide a deposit of less than 25 percent. First Direct, the British online banking unit of HSBC, on April 2 suspended mortgage lending to new customers. Nationwide said March 27 it's withdrawing some of its home loans and raising rates on others by as much as 0.57 percentage point.
The U.K. may nevertheless avoid the fate of the U.S., which is being dragged into recession by the housing market. British house prices, which have tripled in the past decade, have fallen just 0.8 percent since September, according to HBOS. In the U.S., prices dropped 9 percent in the fourth quarter, the Case-Schiller index shows.
Unemployment fell to the lowest since 1975 in February, retail sales unexpectedly rose and Bank of England policy makers said at their last rate decision in March that economic growth was more resilient than they expected.
Inflation Risk
The central bank's task is compounded by faster inflation, restricting the scope for rate cuts. King said last month that price increases may exceed the government's 3 percent limit this year after a surge in energy and food prices. Consumer prices rose 2.5 percent in February from a year earlier.
``We haven't reached a crisis point yet and there are inflationary pressures,'' said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec Securities in London. ``But the economy will slow more sharply from here. If conditions don't improve, the bank will have to be more aggressive.''
Bank of England policy makers have conceded the need to counter tighter credit conditions to prevent them dragging down the economy. Policy maker Paul Tucker said April 2 the central bank will need to cut rates ``gradually.''
Growth Forecast
The U.K. central bank forecasts expansion will cool this year to an annual 1.6 percent rate in the fourth quarter, matching the slowest pace since 1993. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. forecasts the slowdown may be worse and says there's a 35 percent chance of a recession in the next two years.
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said March 11 the property market slumped in February to the worst since 1990, the eve of the nation's last recession.
The Bank of England on April 3 said lenders expect the mortgage market to tighten further in coming months, which will put further pressure on a housing market the International Monetary Fund says is among the most vulnerable to a slump.
``My biggest fear is that when I try to re-mortgage it won't be accepted,'' said Robin Bingeman, 34, a product manager in southwest London, whose monthly payments are scheduled to rise to 2,600 pounds in May from 1,700 pounds. ``I had to go back to my employer and say I need a raise in order to survive.'' |
