Bad to Worse for Moqtada Sadr?
By Rich Lowry
The Corner
A friend e-mails:
<<< On the political front, Sadr now finds himself completely isolated. Key leaders of his own movement are now urging him to accept the Maliki government's demands to disband the militia entirely.
Saturday, Iraq's president and two vice-presidents, along with every other major political group in Iraq (except the Sadrists) joined in the condemnation of Sadr's militia, and endorsed Prime Minister Maliki's demand that the militia disarm. Sadr's militia is now virtually the only militia left in Iraq that still maintains an outlaw posture, the only one that still challenges the authority of the Iraqi Security Forces or the Coalition. (Other major militias have disbanded, transforming into political organizations and joining -- or becoming -- legitimate security forces, which explains why you never hear about any other militia in the news.)
The joint statement is dramatic and sweeping. (I've only been able to find a translation on ProQuest; subscription required). Not only does it enshrine major concessions among the various factions in order to secure a united front against Sadr, but the insistence upon the rule of law and respect for central authority shine through in the clearest terms. Among other things, the signatories pledge to:
--- 2. Firmly supporting the government and its different security agencies in their endeavour to face the militias and outlaws; and valuing the role of the armed forces in imposing security and order in Basra and other governorates. [...]
--- 4. Urging all the parties and political entities to dissolve their militias immediately and to hand their weapons over to the government. [...]
--- 9. Making use of the tribal efforts; and recruiting their elements in the armed forces as a temporary plan dictated by the current situation. [This is a clear reference to the Awakening Movement, which the Shiites at first strongly resisted]. [...]
--- 12. Calling for the expediting of the amendment of the constitution. [Another Sunni demand.]
--- 13. Cancelling all the illegal judicial formations; and resorting solely to the official judicial authority. [...]
After the joint statement was made, a Sunni lawmaker had this to say:
--- "I think the government is now enjoying the support of most political groups because it has adopted a correct approach to the militia problem," said Hussein al-Falluji, a lawmaker from parliament's largest Sunni Arab bloc, the three-party Iraqi Accordance Front. Al- Hashemi heads one of the three, the Iraqi Islamic Party.
The Accordance Front pulled out of al-Maliki's Cabinet in August to protest his policies. The newfound support over militias could help al-Maliki persuade the five Sunni ministers who quit their posts to return. ---
If he succeeds, that would constitute a big step toward national reconciliation, something the U.S. has long demanded.
The Accordance Front has been a strong opponent of Maliki since it pulled its ministers out of the cabinet last summer to protest the long detentions without trial of thousands of Sunni detainees, most of whom were detained more than a year ago before the Ministry of Interior and its forces were purged of militia control. Now an amnesty law has been passed which will greatly accelerate the release of these innocent Sunnis. Add to this the fact that the Iraqi Government's largest independent military operation to date was against the one group in Iraq that the Sunnis fear the most, and the makings of a historic political reconciliation are obvious.
The news gets better still. Reacting to an effort to pass legislation (expected within days) that would disqualify any political party with ties to a militia from participating in elections, one of the Sadrists' most prominent MPs in the parliament conceded that Sadr may have no choice but to disband the militia:
--- 'We, the Sadrists, are in a predicament,' lawmaker Hassan al-Rubaie said Sunday. 'Even the blocs that had in the past supported us are now against us and we cannot stop them from taking action against us in parliament.
' Al-Sadr controls 30 of the 275 parliament seats, a substantial figure but not enough to block legislation. ---
Al-Rubaie said the threat was so serious that a delegation might have to discuss the issue with al-Sadr in person. The young cleric, who has disappeared from the public eye for nearly a year, is believed to be in the Iranian holy city of Qom.
--- In a rare public signal of dissent in Sadrist ranks, al-Rubaie complained that 'those close' to al-Sadr 'are radicals and that poses problems,' suggesting that some of the cleric's confidants may be urging him toward a showdown.
'We must go and explain to him in person that there's a problem,' he said. ---
Al-Rubaie went on to say, 'our political isolation was very clear and real during the meeting."
More recently, BBC reports that the delegations to negotiate the militia's surrender are on their way:
--- An MP for the Sadr bloc, Liqaa Aal Yassin, told the BBC Arabic service that two delegations would be sent - to Grand Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf and Grand Ayatollah Kazem al-Husseini al-Haeri in Iran - to discuss the possible disbanding of the Mehdi Army.
Ms Yassin said the government was also sending a delegation to Moqtada Sadr to discuss Mr Maliki's demand. --- >>>
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