Misunderstanding the violence metric in Iraq
James Robbins:
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Those who seek to declare the surge strategy dead because of the recent “uptick in violence” are ignoring a critical, in fact a definitive, distinction. Fighting has increased because government and Coalition forces are increasing it. There is a vital difference between insurgents conducting attacks on their own terms, and our forces taking the fight to them. One of the most important outcomes of the surge is that we have seized the initiative and increasingly are able to define how the war plays out. For example, there has been an increase in activity in Mosul, but this is because Coalition forces have been pursuing al-Qaeda terrorists displaced from their former sanctuary in Anbar province. To dismiss this by saying “violence is violence” would be like equating the 1940 German conquest of France with the 1944 D-Day landings, both of which were “invasions.”
The fight in Basra likewise affirmed the success of the surge. It demonstrated the willingness of the Iraqi government to come to grips with issues that have been on the back burner while it has been busy contending with disaffected Sunnis, al-Qaeda terrorists, and street violence in Baghdad. With those objectives in sight, the government could turn to other, lower priority problems. Reasserting government authority in Iraq’s fifth most populous city was a good place to start.
Moqtada al Sadr and others (backed materially by Iran) sought to change the dynamic of the fight by shelling the International Zone and conducting other high profile acts of violence, to attempt to engage the media’s “Tet” reflex. On cue, Frank Rich in the New York Times called the fighting in Basra “a mini-Tet that belied the ‘success’ [scare quotes in original] of the surge.” Of course, Tet was launched by the enemy and Basra was initiated by the government; Tet was nationwide and this was subregional; Tet was an attempt by the Communists to foment a people’s uprising to overthrow the South Vietnamese government and in Basra the enemy was at best seeking to defend their local criminal enterprises. But these days it seems like any time a group of masked guerillas shows up in an urban area with assault rifles we are facing some form of Tet Offensive and should meekly declare defeat.
Rich also wrote that the fighting was “a failure that left Mr. Sadr more secure than before.” How so? Sadr is in hiding in Iran. If he can’t show his face in his own country, exactly how secure can he be? Senator Joe Biden declared Sadr victorious because “he lives to fight another day.” I always understood the first part of that particular proverb to be “He who fights and runs away…,” the clear implication being that the “he who” lost the battle and chose dishonor rather than death. Biden is establishing a very low victory threshold for Sadr, and imposing an impossible task on those who oppose him, unless of course they actually kill him, which I assume the senator is not recommending.
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Sometimes battles are not just political. Hyperbole is a part of the Iraqi character when they are in conflict and some have interpreted Maliki's statements about the Mahdi army in a way to construct a political loss for not annihilating it. That seems to be Rich's point. But you have to also consider that Maliki was also offering a deal where the militia would lay down its arms and permit government forces to control the strategic real estate in Basra. That is what finally happened. There was a time when war opponents thought achieving ones objectives without fighting was a good thing. When it comes to Iraq, people like Rich look for any excuse to lose, even a victory over the enemy.
As for the violence metric, it has been the most important to the media in this war. They have always looked at any violence as a failure of policy. It demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of warfare. While the Iraqi government started the violence in this case they were able to achieve their objectives by getting the militias to stop fighting. Both are evidence of a superior force and the media misinterpreted both.
Posted by Merv
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