<Amati in '97:>
BCTEL -- 2,000
HKT -- 500
Siemens - 500
GTE -- 2,000
Taiwan -- 1,000
6,000 X $500 = $3M
Amati in '98:
BCTEL -- 30,000
HKT -- 80,000
GTE -- 200,000 (the earlier figure of 500K seems extremely optimistic
and I prefer to err on the side of caution)
Taiwan -- 30,000
Siemens -- 60,000
400,000 lines X $400 = $160M
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Do any of these deployment numbers include include Westell? And do you think $400 is the advertised "lowest" cost Westell/Amati price? Maybe $250?
But let's look at some earnings numbers from these, using your $400 price, and assuming ONLY AMTX At a generous 25% gross margin, we get $40MM - which becomes $20M net. Using a combined float (as we would for WSTL's numbers now with the merger) This adds about $.60/share.
Seems overly optimistic to me, and with First Call survey of analysts projecting losses of <.47> in '98, these obviously aren't be from analysts numbers (which is also what you have clarified saying "...the most recent analyst reports, you'll notice no one projects numbers of lines") but that's what makes a market!
And based on these numbers, adding in Westell's FC projected loss of <.42>, factoring it down to a post merger loss of <.19>, we get a net post merger gain of .41 .
Again, I don't think so, but who knows? From these numbers, if a generous growth rate of 50% is applied, we get fair market value in '98 of $20/share.
Steve |
