[Numbers]
<<<Do any of these deployment numbers include include Westell? And do you think $400 is the advertised "lowest" cost Westell/Amati price? Maybe $250?>>>
No, these numbers are only for Amati, before merger. If the GTE contract goes to the combined company that will have to be factored in when Westell's numbers are included. This is partly why I've kept my GTE prediction as low as I have. The price is one I was told would apply at least six months ago.
<<<But let's look at some earnings numbers from these, using your $400 price, and assuming ONLY AMTX At a generous 25% gross margin, we get $40MM - which becomes $20M net. Using a combined float (as we would for WSTL's numbers now with the merger) This adds about $.60/share.>>>
If you use the combined float, you have to include Westell's revenues. Until they're factored in, calculate using only Amati's float.
<<<Seems overly optimistic to me, and with First Call survey of analysts projecting losses of <.47> in '98, these obviously aren't be from analysts numbers (which is also what you have clarified saying "...the most recent analyst reports, you'll notice no one projects numbers of lines") but that's what makes a market! >>>
I compared all the early analyst reports against the more recent ones and I'm convinced the First Call numbers are about as unsubstantive as it's possible to be. I can't account for why the recent reports don't give projected lines other than the merger caught them off guard and they weren't prepared.
<<<And based on these numbers, adding in Westell's FC projected loss of <.42>, factoring it down to a post merger loss of <.19>, we get a net post merger gain of .41>>>
I made no claims for Westell's numbers. I'm only doing Amati's.
<<<Again, I don't think so, but who knows? From these numbers, if a generous growth rate of 50% is applied, we get fair market value in '98 of $20/share.>>>
Using your 25% margins and Amati's float of 20M, gives us $2 per share, times your generous growth rate of 50%, gives a fair market value in '98 of $100/share.
Regards,
Pat
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