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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: TimF who wrote (261012)	4/9/2008 8:40:41 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) of 281500

China still has a majority farmer/rural population. On a GDP-per-capita basis, Chinese government is far more able to provide for its people than US government can do for Americans. As well, Chinese are more likely to put up with their government in case of a conflict than Americans with theirs (here I am assuming that aforementioned boycott is due to a conflict that matters to China enough. e.g. China decides to bring Taiwan into fold, whether Taiwan likes it or not. So the Chinese are far more likely to put up with the hardship of no trade with US than Americans are to do so just to support Taiwan). Finally, in your analysis you simply assumed that the next lowest cost supplier will simply fill in China's shoes right away. This is very unrealistic. It takes a lot of time to build factories with enough capacity to replace China's, to train workers who can operate those factories, and many countries would be unwilling to take the risk of such massive investments, only to find US and China have resolved their issues in a few months and see their investments in ruins.

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