Copper demand will grow at 4% for a decade, Rio Tinto says
mining-journal.com
Rio Tinto predicts global demand for copper will grow 4% a year for a decade or more led by sales to China.
"That 4% growth can be sustained for at least a decade or even a generation," Vivek Tulpule, chief economist of London-based Rio Tinto, said April 9 at a briefing in Melbourne. That`s above historical demand, he said. "It`s a very tight market."
China`s 11.4% economic growth in 2007, the fastest in 13 years, fueled demand for copper and pushed prices to a record US$8,820/t on the London Metal Exchange on March 6. It may increase imports of copper by 20% to a record this year, Trafigura Beheer BV, the nation`s top supplier, said April 9.
"In 2009, either early or late, there will be an almighty rush to restock copper and we could see quite extraordinary things happen to the price," Tulpule said. He wouldn`t comment on specific prices."It`s entirely possible we have not yet seen the top."
Rio Tinto rose as much as A$2.80, or 2%, to A$140.20, and was at A$137.50 at 3:05 pm. Sydney time on the Australian Stock Exchange. It has gained 3% this year compared to a 13% decline in the benchmark index.
Chinese imports of concentrate, or processed ore containing copper, may rise to 5.4Mt from 4.5Mt in 2007, Trafigura said April 9. China would become the world`s top buyer, surpassing Japan which bought 5.05Mt last year.
The price of copper has gained 28% on the London Metal Exchange this year. It fell in London overnight, snapping a four-day advance, on speculation a US economic slowdown will erode demand for metals.
"The slowdown in the US economy is not expected to have an effect on commodity demand," Tulpule said. "If the Chinese economy does slow, the government could spend money and take its foot off the brakes on spending."
(Bloomberg, April 9) |
