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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold & Gold Stock Analysis

GLD 408.23

+2.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Andrew who wrote (13131)	4/10/2008 6:35:21 PM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (1) of 29622

Hi Andrew, Many perfectly good juniors have had a 90-100% retracement of what had been huge gains despite the fact that those companies now have much larger ore bodies and more cash than the last time that they sold at these prices when the POG was half of what it is today. I don't believe that this has anything to do with fundamentals. I have many times seen selling that would appear to have been triggered by a totally inconsequential press release. Some folks want these stocks lower and have done quite a job of it, but eventually I expect that there will be not only reversion to the mean but a huge upward price explosion which is also part of the manipulators' game plan. They sell that which they want most to scare everyone else out and provide themselves with the best prices for the best sure thing of the next few years. Each rally gets sold, even by those who believe in these stocks, because the pattern has been a return to the lows after each rally and maybe lower... and each new low requires a re-test. But as the reaction rallies become smaller (as they have been recently) there is less incentive to sell them. That is the point at which the price volatility drops, the price moves sideways as the Bollinger Bands contract, and the stage is set for a great reversal. I remember a day in 2002 or 2003 when a similar pattern had played out. Then suddenly the juniors were up 40% in a week and their bear market was over. I don't believe that that happened by accident and I expect that it will happen again. I don't know when, but the current situation could provide the right setup as XAU/HUI makes new highs and the POG exceeds $1000. We'll see. vt

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