this from yahoo board. does it ring true..
"... Further Report on Analyst Day 11-Apr-08 09:06 am
The following comes from someone I know and trust who attended yesterday's analyst day. This is second hand based on his written notes and a follow-up conversation I had with this person. Overall takeaway -- as a previous poster mentioned, it was a very positive reaffirming meeting.
Eight executives of the company spoke on both the fiber optics and solar sides of the business.
Highlights:
1. The company reiterated that they were comfortable with their guidance for 08 and 09. They indicated, however, that guidance would be updated (increased) in light of the latest Intel acquisition.
2. Their average efficiencies at 500x concentration are/will be as follows:
2007--39 percent with 3rd Gen Triple Junction (CTJ^3).
2008p 43 percent Inverted Meta Morphic (IMM).
2010p 45 percent 2nd Gen (IMM^2)
3. On the systems business, they expect 5MW to be installed in 2008. They mentioned their ongoing projects in S. Korea, Spain and Canada -- although they did not discuss them in great detail. The ISFOC 300KW project should be completed this summer. Pod Generating Group 60MW project is bank financed over 3 years. S. Korea 5.7MW P.O. for 2008 and LOI for 14.3MW follow-on.
Sunpeak 200-700MW was discussed in a little greater detail. This project is dependent upon extension of the ITC's. It will be a major financing with a consortium of banks. Sunpeak chose Emcore after looking carefully at other technologies including solar thermal.
The new China project also was mentioned as a $50 million to $60 million project after the initial 50KW installation. This will be an off-grid project used to support a coal gasification project.
4. On the component side (e.g., cells and receivers, Emcore currently supplies all but two of the existing system integrators (there are approximately 20 system integrators) and they are talking to the remaing two. They have had exponential growth in this business since the second half of 2007. Their customers include GGE, CS La Manch, Isofoton and others to be announced. On the space side their customers include Loral, Boeing, Lockhead Martin, Northrup Grumman and Astrium. They use the same manufacturing process for space and terrestrial. This is what gives them great confidence in their terrestrial products which have been used for many years in the much harsher space environment.
They remain comfortable with their backlog and, in particular, have met with the four largest GGE customers who are all real. Their revenue guidance is "risk adjusted". In other words they have been conservative. ES Systems of South Korea is fully funded and has ordered 42.5MW of cells/receivers. That GGE customer will represent most of the GGE business initially.
The business model for the GGE business is to ship directly to the GGE customers and the payment comes from those customers.
5. The company specifically refuted the Citron allegations with respect to GGE [customers are not shams or shells] , their backlog [revenue guidance/backlog is risk adjusted as previously mentioned], that their technology is too expensive for system applications [Citron compared 100x cost MJ Space Cells to standard polysilicon terrestrial cells - not apples to apples] and that their product is toxic [GaAs is in your cell phone and PDA and is not eaten like a cookie].
6. Most illuminating disclosure -- expect some new significant announcements on the terrestrial solar side.
7. Without getting into great detail, the fiber optics discussion was extremely positive. If I have the time, I'll post on it later...." |
