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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Keith J who wrote (30638)	4/11/2008 7:30:09 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) of 78672

TZIX. Regarding "a 7-8% potential arb return for 4-6 months is not great in my book." 15-20% gains possibility on anything in this market looks good to me. -g- To me it is a pretty good return, because it's in the ballpark of what most of the buyouts go for -- the one's that are getting completed. That would be my opinion, based on my experience. 15-20% annualized or maybe a little more... just about right. If there's a much greater return, then imo, the pro's are saying the deal won't be consummated. I am still holding losses in TMY and COMS -- which had larger annualized potential gains and which both then failed to consummate. PENN is one that I have with a large potential gain and therefore it imo is in now doubt (i.e. has high risk) too: seekingalpha.com ----- Uh, I'm not clear what I'm talking about here. I believe I am talking about cash buyout offers from private entities, and if so, I don't know how one plays an arb spread here (buying something and making an offsetting sale (short).

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