HOC: Holly Corporation Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : HOC: Holly Corporation

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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (6)	4/14/2008 1:51:20 PM
From: DELT1970	of 8

Adjusting 1Q08 Estimate for Updated Disclosures Summary and Recommendation from Friedman Billings Ramsey "Following Holly's March 25 announcement that January and February margins were lower than anticipated, we are reducing our first-quarter estimate from $0.65 to $0.10. This decreases our full-year 2008 estimate from $4.15 to $3.60. We believe that the stock (down more than 10% year to date) already reflects 1Q08 margins. We reiterate HOC as our Top Pick, as it should benefit from an improving gasoline supply/demand balance heading into the summer driving season and increasing appreciation for its substantial growth projects. Key Points • Lowering expectations. Holly's presentation states that margins were lower than previously anticipated. January and February margins are now estimated at $4/bbl at Navajo and $11/bbl at Woods Cross. Incorporating these disclosures reduces our 1Q08 EPS estimate."

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