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Strategies & Market Trends : The Swamp

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To: gold$10k who wrote (164)	4/14/2008 8:58:18 PM
From: SwampDogg	Read Replies (1) of 491

Goldberg's count is bang on IMO. What I like is that he has the impulse beginning in August 2007 and not earlier as many do. This is important as it puts us earlier in this process (ie the Wave 3 has not started yet). The reason I think that this count is right is that the move coming out of early 2007 is not an impulse and can therefore not be counted as the beginning of the major move higher. There is overlap. We are still in a Wave ii on the $HUI in some complex running correction. The goal of a Wave 2 of any degree is to make the market question whether the Wave 1 was a real bull move. This has done this.. Juniors look as if they are also signally a major low right here. Even the strong ones of the past couple of months are seeing come selling here and ones that have struggled are being puked up. This may be setting up a great move higher just as most are looking to take the summer off. IMO a couple of weeks from now all will look very different. There is an interesting chart of Sinclair's site on the 4 week cycle. Sure is interesting how the 1979-80 chart lines up. Looks like there is another mama move coming. stockcharts.com Just an example. The other possibility here is that we have a Completed Wave 1 and 2 off the August '07 low and then a 1,2,i,ii extension off the Dec low setting up a 3 of a larger 3 in here. Whatever this is...it is a grind which has to be bullish as it sure is not easy:) I posted this on another site but IMO it is very important that all 4 traders on CNBC's Fast Money were basically making fun of gold today as if it was 1999-2000 all over again. This has to be imminently bullish as IMO they have to look very very silly very very quickly. It is just the way things go. The story was on "Gold Fever" and how everybody was melting down their jewelry to sell. Nobody seemed to notice that the public was selling and not buying as they did at the top in 1980. A small but important point.

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