I think you may be parsing Gore's statement incorrectly. He is not saying that the catastrophe will occur in ten years if we don't act. He's saying that if we don't act within that time, the catastrophe will become inevitable.
I know what it means. I spent half of yesterday trying to communicate with Mary regarding it. <g>
But even if we can't fix the whole problem in ten years, perhaps we could make a start and buy ourselves a little time.
Now I'm doubtful about your parsing. The tipping point is the point of no return. It means that the solution needs to operational by then or Katy bar the door. By the date of the tipping point, the emissions graph must be starting to turn down, not that on that date we've finally acted as in, perhaps, passed a law to put a bunch of windmills or solar thermal plants or whatever in next year's budget.
Since it takes less time to build solar thermal plants than nuclear or even coal plants, doesn't it make sense to invest in them?
Not unless they can be in place prior to the point of no return. If they're too little, too late, we're unnecessarily hurting ourselves by putting what little life humanity has left into building them.
It's kind of like quitting smoking after you have EMPHYSEMA. You might not be able to stop the disease, but you don't have to aid and abet it.
You used an emphysema and smoking example the other day. I ignored it because it was so grim but since it's your example... The tipping point is when whatever test they use to measure such things hits its magic indicator and the doctor says you're terminal. At that point you might as well keep smoking if it gives you pleasure. Quitting at that point isn't going to change your outcome. OTOH, if it gives you satisfaction to know you kicked the habit after all, are no longer aiding and abetting it, then stop smoking and enjoy that pleasure. But the tipping point has been reached and, while the outcome date may vary by weeks depending on what steps you take, it is inevitable.
And I don't think anybody should take the "ten years" as anything other than a very rough estimate.
I don't, except that it is orders of magnitude off what time we would need to lick this thing if it really is as bad as some seem to think it is. If it's really bad, we can still lick it, but not if it's really bad and the tipping point is really soon. |
