2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 386.01

+1.6%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Moominoid who wrote (33198)	4/17/2008 12:53:46 AM
From: Night Trader	Read Replies (1) of 217712

I did some work with regressions on daily % changes over the last 1-2 years a little while ago and found a R squared (the % of the change in the predicted variable that can be explained by the change in the predictor from the data given) of 63% for HUI on Gold, 73% for HUI on gold and S&P 500 combined and finally 77% for HUI on the trio of Gold,S&P and crude oil i.e. oil didn't add much predictive power. This makes sense as though oil has recently been comoving with gold the waters are muddied because mining companies are large users of energy. However gold itself on oil was 56% with gold and the S&P surprisingly having a small positive correlation (R=0.24) when looking at daily % changes. Longer term however I'm convinced these two are negatively related.

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