Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (77865)	4/17/2008 3:33:01 PM
From: koan	Read Replies (3) of 116555

Elroy: " Things are real bad in the building industry. They've been really bad for quite some time. As a person who closely follows Canadian commodities, you already knew that lumber prices have collapsed - "yet you acted as if they were rising rapidly." koan; "I never said anything about lumber! Go find the post. Elroy: "The credit bubble has created a huge glut of buildings which will far exceed actual demand for many, many years." In may places yes and other places no and most places will turn around at different times. And worldwide inflation flowing over the US will affect housing prices going forward. Given, inflation will affect the housing market at a relative rate to the sub prime debacle in its totallity. A worldwide deppression, and defaltion, would have made the housing crises worse. Elroy: Supply and demand. That's why home prices are riding the downslope. koan: sure Elroy: "After Japan's credit bubble collapsed, real estate prices have declined for 17 consecutive years!" koan: "Japan and the US are not analagous. Apples and Oranges. Japan's deflation problem is casued primarily by a loss in population with minus birthrate. The US's population is expanding rapidely from immigration from Mexico and South America. Building has all but stopped. So yes the rising population needs to catch up with the spec bubble. But it will. And we might start migrating to jobs as a nation. Breadbelt will need many new workers. But e.g., food inflation makes breadbelt property more valuable and I'll bet it is rising right now. Alaska should be starting back up next year I expect. Seattle and Portland will not drop very far, but may remain static for a while. Just my guesses. California, Las Vegas and Florida are a mess -lol. Oh yes there were a few strong pockets for the first few years, but that didn't last long. .

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