So I looked into those names, and it is the special situations
fund, and special situations life sciences fund--they were one
of the investors that got in last June, with the big slug of
$3 warrants etc. Boy, they really got creamed. The fellow on
the Q&A this past call was from R&R I think--and eventually
TGEN will have to go back to the well, and it is a good guess
that the next round of dilution will come from yet another
R&R placement.
But what I think should happen is that TGEN should just split
things up and move on. Maybe the vaccine work should go to
Merck, what could they sell it for? The TNF-AAV project could
go to Amgen (imnx), there might be some value to the IP, and
what is left--the aav and RNAi stuff, maybe that could go
to a new startup like Ceregene--the shares could go over there
in a reverse merger or whatever. I cannot believe Parker would
have the stomach to do yet another round of financing and do
another clinical trial after the bad luck this past year.
But then tgen shareholders are gluttons for the punishment,
there is certainly a pattern of never ending rounds of
dilution--not profits to dilute, so meaningless. But the
$300m spent is not meaningless. I would love to know who has
shorted this for the past decade--somebody made a little
money doing that.
I'm ashamed to say I probably lost a good $30k in this over
the past eight years--and may yet lose a bit more. I don't
want to badmouth TGEN--nobody said it was a blue chip, andcompanies do fail in biotechland. This one may be headed into
the dustbin. There is huge leverage--imagine if the vaccine
work showed promise, or if the arthritis therapy someday
was as common as steroid injections. But it is easy to
imagine success--when does this imagination become a
delusion?
And then there is the money spent. It is especially ironic
that tgen paid something like $50m for Genovo, and now only
has a MC of $17M, how awful.
Well, that's my two cents. I might send my wife to the
shareholder meeting this year--I don't think I have the
stomach for another dog and pony show. TGEN gets an A for
effort, but what a terrible stock this has been. |
