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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: michael97123 who wrote (378929)4/18/2008 10:41:33 AM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (1) of 1575342
 
The mistake i made was to conflate primary with general. I think McCain is in far better shape now that he would have been.

It's still 7 months to the general. Right now McCain has the prestige of being the presumed candidate (neither Dem has that), without any of the attacks that Hill and Obama are suffering every single day... yet Obama still leads or ties McCain in national match ups. Things are going to change dramatically when the general election campaign starts in earnest with a presumptive Dem candidate.

After PE, IN and NC, if Obama makes a strong showing, 'I think' the party pressure on Hill will be so strong that she will drop out (though probably not release her delegates, just in case something happens). Then the general election will begin. And I personally think McCain is a very weak candidate with near zero charisma.

The Republican machine will throw a ton of mud at Obama, a ton. A lot depends on how much sticks. He has shown some pretty good resilience to this stuff; his numbers go down for a week and then rebound. Obama will generally be running against Bush (McSame) and especially if things start breaking bad in Iraq, and we are in a recession, that's a huge advantage to Obama.

It's way to early to make predictions about the general... but my guess is that either Obama or Hill will trounce McCain.
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