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Politics : RAMTRONIAN's Cache Inn

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From: NightOwl4/18/2008 6:15:43 PM
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The real Phase Change killer:
electronicsweekly.com

L'Intel isn't going to throw more R&D into a technology that can only ("potentially") produce piddling performance through 2 or 3 process nodes before requiring a complete re-mix of the fab process.

But do not expect them to walk away empty handed. I have to assume that they will try to salvage as much as possible from their equity stakes in Ovonics and Numonyx both.

This will require some degree of "platform" marketing... uh... creativity. But don't be fooled. Unlike IBM... L'Intel has no qualms about promoting product "ramps" which subsequently prove to have been DOA.

I'm just guessing mind... but I would be quite surprised if they do not attempt to maximize the PCM "buzz" by taking the R&D cash no longer being spent and using it to fund a supposedly PCM friendly "platform," at some point between now and October of 2009... simply to allow them a chance to divest the lion's share of their OUM related equities.

Numonyx should be in desperate need of cash by year end 2009 if not sooner. And at some point in 2010... the industry is going to have to start showing some real "hole cards" regarding their post cmos plans. So they don't have a whole lot of time to pull something off.

I figure an IPO for Numonyx will be its only means of getting a significant cash infusion. If I were going to play this scenario... I'd pass on the IPO and buy ENER on any dips under $23.

But from my perspective RMTR is the least risky way to play it. I'm guessing that thin films and quantum dots of PZT will sit on top of graphene structures just as well as they handle silicon... perhaps substantially better.

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