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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (99422)	4/18/2008 7:23:39 PM
From: profile_14	Read Replies (1) of 206084

I am not so sure about OIH running too fast from here because of the extreme move today. That generally engenders a pullback next week. If you look at the MACD, it is at the opposite side of the chart that it was when we had the market meltdown. While I don't know if we gap up on Monday or not, that would not surprise me and an intraday reversal is what I would expect to see. Same logic follows with the ADX green and red lines. We are about as far away from the 200-day moving average as we have been in 3 years. That is not a bullish sign but one of exhaustion -- especially when coupled with the magnitude of the move. A lot of shorts got pinned today, including myself on different stocks, but for the first time in 2008 I bought puts on a stock, namely OIH MAY 195 puts. I think we can see a 8-10 point pullback in short order (3-5 days). Maybe more in a few weeks' time. To me, a dollar reversal will be key for this to happen and reduce the price of dollar -denominated commodities, and hence the momentum behind energy as a dollar hedge. Funny that it would only retrace today and some of yesterday with that move, but heck, it has been fast -- as squeezes generally are. stockcharts.com stockcharts.com

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