Aggie, not addressed to me - but let me take a shot:
>>>How much of this do you think is due to nationalization and parlay on the part of governments to change the deal (Russia, Nigeria, etc, in other words, a shifting business model in favor of nations instead of operators) as opposed to simply being a function of the harder-to-find-and-extract factor?<<<
My answer is virtually all of it. Reserves are greater than ever before, production is too, and there is no shortage of good finds. The shortage is access to them, and the loss of previously sweet deals. Russian alone has enough reserves to keep the world chugging along for another couple of decades, but that just screeched to a halt with all the renationalization.
>>>Second - How much of the record prices and demand difficulty is really a result of insufficient infrastructure - lack of refining, lack of storage and transportation capacity, etc, to keep up with ramping world demand?<<<
My answer is none of it. There is an overcapacity of refining now, and a good slug more on the way. No shortage of storage, transport, etc.
These are interesting times... |
