C2, keep in mind that speculating is about being AHEAD of the things that happen. If you wait until those items you mention, then selling gold will be a No-Brainer and will require No-Brainers to buy it from you at $1000 an ounce, ...or $600 an ounce .... or even $400 an ounce ... <Still, as I said, very savvy traders have exited gold, a statement worth savoring, reflecting on, thinking about, then ignoring unless the exit is due to higher interest rates and a lessening of inflationary pressures, both of which do not exist and will not exist for many, many months. >
You are right, but you have to leave BEFORE you see the whites of the eyes of the higher interest rates and reduced inflationary pressures. Desertion is considered cowardly, but who are you defending by holding the line, keeping the price up? The game is more musical chairs - when the music stops, you should be sitting down, not standing up holding the gold. They don't ring a bell when they are going to stop the music. It just stops.
I have got the impression that house prices have been tumbling. For a lot of regular humans, that's a very deflationary effect, even if their gasoline to fuel their dirty great SUV which is also experiencing a lot of deflation has doubled in price. If you check in the USA the salaries and wages of people, you will find that they have not been high-fiving each other with big, or any, pay increases in the last year or so [NZ is still living in Fool's Paradise of borrowed and hope and big pay increases are common. In China there are big pay increases and for good reason].
Gold prices have formed a nice head and shoulders. Are you willing to bet against the superstitious?
Mqurice |
