I'll try to catch Obama on the Daily Show, less serious, LOL.
Here is a good portrait why the delegate breakdown in PA is likely to be very close:
Final PA Prediction Roundup (with new Map!): Obama 76 delegates, Clinton 82 delegates
by ObamaManiac2008
Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:04:43 PM PDT
Although I do not believe Obama will get his squeaker of a victory tomorrow, I do think it will be rather close and that the overall perception of Clinton campaign right now is that they're desperate and worried. One of the reasons I have the delegate count so close is that if there's one thing Obama has been effective at doing this campaign, it's been accumulating pledged delegates. We've all seen how he only got 44% of the popular vote in Ohio, yet walked away with 47.5% of the pledged delegates.
* ObamaManiac2008's diary :: ::
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I've been wavering in my predictions for the different Congressional Districts. If you want to see my original predictions or maps of the different Congressional Districts, they are here: dailykos.com.
PA-01: Obama 5, Clinton 2
I will fall off my chair if Obama doesn't get the 5 - 2 split. This has a lot to do with median age - PA-01 has a median age of 32, which is by far the lowest of any of PA's Congressional Districts. It is also 50% African American, 17% Hispanic, and 5% Asian. I would probably bet my entire fortune on a 5 - 2 split for Obama here.
Running tally: Obama +3
PA-02: Obama 7, Clinton 2
This district is 61% African American, and features a few of the "latte-sipping" neighborhoods. Should be a slam dunk for the 7 - 2 split, but we will see. The only part of Philly in which Obama will do really poorly is the NE and that is in PA-13.
Running tally: Obama +8
PA-03: Clinton 3, Obama 2
This is the Northwest (Erie) district. Obama has been polling above 30% in most of the polling I have seen. Some polls have had him at 40%. Should be roughly 62% Clinton, 38% Obama which isn't anywhere near enough for a 4-1 split.
Running tally: Obama +7
PA-04: Clinton 3, Obama 2
Lawrence and Beaver counties, outside of Pittsburgh, will go heavily for Clinton, but not enough to overcome the 40%+ that Obama will get in the Allegheny County section of the district. Should be roughly 65% Clinton, 35% Obama for a 3-2 split for Clinton
Running tally: Obama +6
PA-05: Obama 2, Clinton 2
Includes a large swath of northern rural counties which border New York. Very favorable to Clinton, but includes Centre County, where Obama will cruise. I'm stick to my earlier prediction of Clinton 60%, Obama 40% which constitutes a 2-2 split.
Running tally: Obama +6
PA-06: Obama 3, Clinton 3
Including portions of Montgomery, Berks, and Chester counties, this district will probably show a narrow popular vote victory for Obama but it won't be enough to procure a 4-2 split. The split will be 3-3.
Running tally: Obama +6
PA-07: Obama 4, Clinton 3
Highly educated (parts of Delaware and Chester counties), seems to be trending Obama. He could even walk away with a double digit win in the popular vote here - but any win in the popular vote for Obama makes it a 4-3 split in his favor.
Running tally: Obama +7
PA-08: Clinton 4, Obama 3
Encompassing most of Bucks County, this could very well swing to Obama given the fact that the entire Southeast seems to be trending in his direction. However, I'm playing it safe and sticking with Clinton here for a 4-3 split.
Running tally: Obama +6
PA-09: Clinton 2, Obama 1
Rural, South Central portion of Pennsylvania and strongly Appalachian. An easy 2-1 split for Clinton.
Running tally: Obama +5
PA-10: Clinton 3, Obama 1
This far Northeast section of PA will go for Clinton strongly. If Obama were to manage a 2-2 split here, it would probably indicate a victory in both the popular vote and the delegate count for him. Should be a 3-1 split for Clinton.
Running tally: Obama +3
PA-11: Clinton 3, Obama 2
Bigtime stronghold for Clinton (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, etc.), but with a large final push from Obama, he should keep the popular vote margin down enough for a 3-2 split in Clinton's favor.
Running tally: Obama +2
PA-12: Clinton 4, Obama 1
This is the far Southwest corner of the state. If Obama were to avoid a 4-1 split here, it would mean that he has carried the state as a whole. I still feel he won't break the 30% needed to avoid this, but I could be wrong.
Running tally: Clinton +1
PA-13: Clinton 4, Obama 3
Normally this would look good for Obama in that it is Montgomery County. But it also includes NE Philadelphia which isn't Obama territory. I'm giving Clinton a small win here for the 4-3 split.
Running tally: Clnton +2
PA-14: Obama 4, Clinton 3
(Pittsburgh) This is the one where I've changed my mind. It's almost 25% African American and includes some affluent neighborhoods that seem favorable to Obama. I think he'll squeak by for a 4-3 split.
Running tally: Clinton +1
PA-15: Clinton 3, Obama 2
Including most of Lehigh and Northampton counties and a bit of Montgomery as well, I think Obama will do okay here. I think the current trend in the polls validates the Muhlenberg College poll from earlier showing a statistical tie between Obama and Clinton in Lehigh and Northampton counties. That having been said, Clinton will carry the district as a whole, giving her the 3-2 split automatically.
Running tally: Clinton +2
PA-16: Obama 2, Clinton 2
Lancaster and the remainder of Chester County. Should be a 2-2 split.
Running tally: Clinton +2
PA-17: Clinton 2, Obama 2
Dauphin/Lebanon/Berks/Shuykill. Clinton territory, but I doubt it will be enough for a 3-1 split.
Running tally: Clinton +2
PA-18: Clinton 3, Obama 2
One of the most highly educated districts, but includes some rural SW areas not favorable to Obama. Should be a 3-2 split for Clinton
Running tally: Clinton +3
PA-19: Clinton 2, Obama 2
York/Adams counties. Clinton should win the popular vote narrowly for a 2-2 split
Running tally: Clinton +3
Feeling somewhat confident that Clinton's victory will be a bit narrower than expected, I think that the rest of the delegates will breakdown as follows:
At-large delegates: Clinton 18, Obama 17.
PLEO delegates: Clinton 11, Obama 9.
Put it all together and you have: Clinton 82, Obama 76. I believe the popular vote will be roughly 52.5% Clinton, 47.5% Obama. |
