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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: The Ox who wrote (93728)4/22/2008 3:51:13 PM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
Anyone who has been reading the U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics and following production problems in Australia and elswhere knows that real shortages of grains are developing. All over the world, countries are putting in export duties or even embargoes on the export of grains. Argentina has actually shut down exports.

There is always a thick layer of speculation in the grain futures traded on U.S. commodities exchanges. It sounds as if you are looking at the situation purely from that point of view. In the past, overproduction within the United States and accumulation of stored grain has always been there to eventually overwhelm price rises. Also, the "green revolution" of the later 20th century increased production all over the world. So the development of genuine shortages that cannot quickly be remedied is a new experience for a lot of people.

What you say is not at all well informed, though it certainly is insulting. It reminds me of the tone taken by some old oilmen who insisted that crude oil was a cyclical commodity and that any rise past, say $25 a barrel would bring out supplies that would drive the price back down.

In a way you are correct. I do live on a different planet from you. The planet I live on is not only running out of oil, but is also getting seriously constrained in its ability to feed all the human beings on earth.
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