Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (1669)	10/15/1997 1:40:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	of 42834

RE: Heard Bob's Sunday monologue. The commander of the starship Moneytalk was shocked by the survey of 750 investors published in Friday's NY Times(I think it was done by Montgomery Asset Management).The results said the average expectation was an annual return of 34%. He said people who believe that are passengers on the ship of fools. The Dow whould have to go from 8045 (Friday) to 24,400 in 5 years. Actually, 24,400 is the figure for 4 years. For 5 years, it should be 32,200. Brinker made the mistake of quoting the same number for both the 4-year and 5-year periods. But I remember he corrected himself the second time around. He said the bull/bear ratio had risen slightly (to 61%) but said it was still in the neutral range. He has a hold on Microsoft & felt it was "richly priced". I agree with your assessment that he was not issuing any sell signal. I am curious to know what was Brinker's forecast a few months before the 1987 crash. If he erred there, I see no reason why he couldn't be wrong again. This situation is a lot more difficult than the 1987 one, because this market is going where no market has gone before... Personally, I don't believe in market timing, though. Because you have got to be right twice in order to be successful -- on when to get out of the market and also on when to get back in. Make a mistake in either of those two, and you're quite likely to get as much screwed (if not more) as the guy who did nothing! Dipy.

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