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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (9330)4/22/2008 11:55:31 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical   of 50545
 
Great post especially regarding TA, but I think the Yen thing is relatively recent and it simply represents Japanese physical buyers leaving the gold market as their currency strengthens. At some pt in the near future this indicator will lose it's value as well. Of course there's also plenty of deleveraging w/the Yen carry trade unwinding as well - (bigger factor initially). Both of these are ST in the nature. Develeraging will eventually draw down and Japan buyers will be replaced by buyers from the US and elsewhere. That said right now odds look good that gold will go lower ST. Whether that's 875, 850, 825 or all the way back to the 65 weekly ema remains to be seen. I have many reasons FA and TA for believing this. Presently I'm fairly low allocation as I've mostly exited out the last few days (mostly last week).

I think more than anything this is due the Euro being over-extended overvalued here. The Dollar has it's problems but so do the other fiats. Right now the race is from one fiat to another and gold gets some marginal buying here and there from CBs (as it's pays no interest). Eventually security of principal will trump any thoughts of interest payments and we'll embark on the next stage. Right now we need some cleansing ST. Tend to agree w/Soros that all commodities look to be in a bubble. Gold looks cheap relative to other commodities (especially oil LT), but initially just like 2001 everything may go down together.

As always there's always a chance that things may go up from here. No fundamental change in the US economy/financials. Gold sentiment is somewhat ugly, but would like to see more on SI capitulate. If it's going to happen it'll probably happen this week, but it's got low odds imho.

Still too much denial and faith overall that the world economy will continue to grow. Slowdown should eventually feed on themselves. How can the world economy not slowdown with the US and the EU slowing down at the same time? Once this bit of faith gets busted gold should be an excellent buy again. Look how long we were into the subprime mess before it finally got noticed? An IT Dollar rally would crush most commodities and be welcome by most CBs. What would it take? A smashing or the Euro or simply a flight to safety if all the world stock markets start heading south again.

Still about 20% PMs. There's always something that looks good and I want some exposure in case I'm wrong ST. Easier to buy back when you have a foot in the door (mentally mostly).

That's my current read FWIW.
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