Chip, since this thread typically ranges from mildly to massively bullish on TLAB, the opposite perspective is welcomed. The problem with your posts from my perspective is the excessive reliance on TA. I am well aware that you have given up on FA based on your statement that you were burned because 'somebody always knows more and that is reflected in the volume, price action, and all the other TA stuff'. (Realize that is not a direct quote but hope it's close enough to fairly capture your preference for TA.)
Here are my prejudices; (1) long TLAB (2) fundamental analysis kind of guy (3)long term, buy and hold. Without boring you, let me suggest what I see as the flaw in your assertion that the volume, price action, etc. can somehow be interpreted to give TA folks a betting edge. All that TA stuff necessarily includes "dumb" buyers and sellers as well as "smart" buyers and sellers, so unless you can demonstrate how TA analysis sorts through the crowd, the best you can do is quantify some short term directional momentum. In my opinion, however,massive quantitative analysis has demonstrated that over the short term, the market is a random walk. Long story short (note clever pun), I would just as soon use darts or sheep intestines to divine short term moves. Now for the kicker--there are folks who can profitably play short term moves and do it consistently--the guys on the floor, and if you think you can beat them, well let's say that I been there and done that, and they get a look at the market that nobody else does, period, end of story. What's worse, they know all that chart pattern jazz that gets you guys so excited. So when they see head and shoulders reverse overlap candlestick with a triple bottom (not to mention a graphite shaft), they KNOW what your trading response will be and are only too happy to accommodate you. Why do you think so many options mysteriously expire out of the money? Ain't no co-winky dink if you get my drift. Therefore, I render unto the floor traders what is theirs: 1/16ths, 1/8ths and occasionally full points (see INTC today for example), and they are happy to let me take larger spreads at the cost of doing so over time but only, of course, if I am right in my analysis and pick companies whose earnings growth exceeds the capitalization rate applicable at the time of my entry point. None of this stuff ever changes anyone's mind and I am sure that you are even now seeing horrendously bearish, pixelating patterns that guarantee TLAB will drop through the floor. Me? I see gross margins that make me blush and my real fear is that I hope they're in a legitimate business. Best Regards, Mike Doyle |
