The stars are aligning for a Democratic landslide in November. The economy, the war, and the general disgust with the Bush years are all moving in their direction, regardless of who the standard bearer is.
While the Democrats have been squabbling among themselves, McCain got a bounce in the polls and has moved to solidify his party's base of conservatives. He's reaffirmed his support for the war and embraced the tax cuts he opposed in 2001, tying himself even closer to Bush's policies.
In politics, six months can be a lifetime. But it's likely that McCain's support is peaking. Between now and November, the Democrats are likely to unite again, the economic news is likely to worsen, the violence in Iraq is likely to continue, and the spotlight will focus on McCain as it never has before.
It's been buried by the coverage of the Clinton-Obama spat, but McCain has stumbled several times in the past weeks in potentially fatal ways.
McCain, who's running as the expert in foreign policy, revealed just how shallow his expertise is when he repeatedly confused the two major groups in Islam, claiming that radical Shiite Iran was backing radical Sunni Al Qaeda in Iraq.
It won't do, as his campaign now says, that "Al Qaeda" is simply short-hand for "Muslims we don't like." "Black" is not short-hand for "white," nor is "right" short-hand for "wrong."
One test of whether someone is qualified to be commander in chief is knowing who the enemy is. McCain has failed that test.
On the economy, McCain put a serious dent in his reputation as a straight-talker, blatantly pandering to voters by proposing more tax cuts, even suggesting a moratorium on the federal gasoline tax.
If McCain really believes global warming is a serious problem that must be addressed, he'd know that the price of gasoline is too low, not too high. McCain can't tell the truth about what it will take to reduce greenhouse gases.
McCain's budget numbers just don't add up. He's gone from rejecting the first Bush tax cuts as being fiscally irresponsible to trying to out-Bush Bush. That may play well with the Republican hard-core base, but to moderate voters it looks like McCain thinks every economic problem can be cured with a tax cut, a theory that's proven its faults over the past seven years.
While McCain backed into his party's nomination without even being forced to break a sweat, Clinton and Obama have honed their message and have mobilized a vast army of disgruntled Democrats.
Come November, some of them will remember the nasty fight in March and April, and will cross the line to vote for McCain. Some will turn away from Obama because he's black, or from Clinton because she's a woman.
But the vast majority will vote for the Democrat because they believe the times and their own best interests demand it. |
