Yeah, Amelio and the other top guys knew by Thanksgiving that they were doomed in the Dec. quarter. And of course it was right before the NeXT deal was finalized. I remember a terse "no comment" from Jobs when a SF Chronicle reporter asked him about the fact that his 1.5 million shares had just lost $10 million in value within days after the 4Q report.
The bigger story with Apple stuffing the channel is that huge loss in the March, 1996 quarter. A $740 million loss as Amelio cleaned house. A big portion of that was writing off inventory. Apple had warehouses full of outdated systems that they'd been booking as sales. So every
business reporter talks about Apple losing $1.6 billion (or whatever it is) "in the past 18 months" but really they lost hundreds of millions of those dollars in 1995. It just didn't show up until that 1996 quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if some of that stuff even came from late 1994!
Look at Novell. Every year they have to just drain the channel and show $50 million in Netware revenues for a quarter, not $175 million. They stuff, then they purge.
Reportedly, Apple has a pretty clean channel now. Maybe a bit of an overstock on the low-end models. Also the PowerBooks aren't moving that well domestically. The high end machines are always constrained, what else is new.
Alomex, you've been watching this co. looking to buy in for what, a year plus? If they give a good report this Q, don't you think things are looking up? The company isn't nearly as bloated as it used to be. If they can make a typical box maker type profit on say six or seven billion in sales, plus move into new markets with Rhapsody, don't you think it's a bargain even in the thirties?
Still a ways away, I know,
Marc |
