'I'll make you a friendly wager that the $HUI is above 500 by the end of May.'
Actually, I'm hoping that Silver comes back to $15 so that I can reload.
But, how long did gold, silver and the mining stocks languish after the big May 2006 correction before we saw new highs?
Well over a year.
I just dont like sitting in DEAD MONEY for over a year. And some day- we all know that they wont come back, they'll just keep sinking lower and lower and lower like they did 27 years ago.
I dont think all commoditys are in a bubble, but I think most of them are full of speculation money and that needs to get washed out before we base and go higher. And Swampy I just dont think thats going to all happen in the month of May. So, yes- I'll take your friendly bet in good spirit, but I think Oil needs to at least retest $100 and may even see $80 before winter heating season.
I'm glad I added some puts a week ago and am now getting paid to watch stocks fall, instead of gulping quarts of Malox and shitting like a goose, as I watch my portfolio vaporize.
No more Malox moments for me. Dont fight the tape, or the Fed.
If the Fed is 'one and done'- so is gold, and silver for a 'while.'
Did you see Stiglitz on CNBC this morning? That makes about 10 economists who have said this will be the worst recession since the Great Depression. Well, at first I didnt belive that. But, now I am starting to see signs they may be right. Now I lived and worked through recessions in the 70's, 80's and the 90's, and if this is going to be worse than all of those- we have BIG problems yet to come. And THEN since we'll already be near '0' interest rates, the only choice the Fed will have is to print more money- and thats when Gold and Silver go to the moon. But, the Fed isn't going to do that before early 2009. So I think we have 7-8 months that will not be very good for gold and silver. I don't think we see new highs untill mid 2009 when the Fed may have nothing left to cut, and will have to print money. Then gold and silver see new highs.
Ron |
