The Handset Sales and Share Game: Q1 2008
With all major vendors reported there is a sizeable 9.3 million unit variance between Strategy Analytics' estimate for global handset sell-in, and IDCs. Both estimates, however, are lower than Nokia's estimate so their share estimates for Nokia are higher than Nokia's own. Strategy Analytics has Nokia gaining 0.3 percentage points of share sequentially in Q1 while IDC sees them losing 0.4 ppt. sequentially. Either way they increased share substantially YoY and also increased their annual share on a rolling 12 month basis to close on 39% annual share. Nokia shipped 2.5x their next nearest competitor in Q1 and by shipping 115.5m units almost outshipped their 4 next nearest competitors combined 120.7 million units.
Sales and Share Estimates for Nokia
Nokia Total Nokia YoY
Units Units Share Growth
====== ====== ===== ========
Strategy Analytics 115.5m 282.3m 40.9% 4.0 ppt.
IDC 115.5m 291.6m 39.6% 3.9 ppt.
Nokia 115.5m 295.0m 39.2% 3.2 ppt.
------ ------ ----- ---------
Consensus 115.5m 289.6m 39.9% +3.7 ppt.
Q1 2008 Global Mobile Handset Shipments and Marketshare (Strategy Analytics)
Vendor Q1 '07 Q4 '07 2007 Q1 '08
===================================== ====== ====== ======= ======
Nokia 91.1m 133.5m 437.1m 115.5m
36.9% 40.6% 38.9% 40.9%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Samsung 34.8m 46.3m 161.1m 46.3m
14.1% 14.1% 14.4% 16.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Motorola 45.4m 40.9m 159.0m 27.4m
18.4% 12.4% 14.2% 9.7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
LG Electronics 15.8m 23.7m 80.5m 24.4m
6.4% 7.2% 7.2% 8.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Sony Ericsson 21.8m 30.8m 103.4m 22.3m
8.8% 9.4% 9.2% 7.9%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Others 38.3m 53.9m 181.5m 46.4m
15.5% 16.4% 16.2% 16.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 247.2m 329.1m 1122.6m 282.3m
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
------------------------------------- ------ ------ ------- ------
Total Growth Year-over-Year +11.0% +12.3% +12.0% +14.2%
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Mobile Phone Vendors, Q1 2008 Unit sales and Share Results (IDC)
1Q'08 1Q'08 1Q'07 1Q'07 YoY
Units Share Units Share Growth
====== ====== ====== ====== ======
Nokia 115.5m 39.6% 91.1m 35.7% +26.8%
Samsung 46.3m 15.9% 34.8m 13.6% +33.0%
Motorola 27.4m 9.4% 45.4m 17.8% -39.7%
LG Electronics 24.4m 8.4% 15.8m 6.2% +54.4%
Sony Ericsson 22.3m 7.6% 21.8m 8.5% +2.3%
Others 55.7m 19.1% 46.1m 18.1% +20.8%
====== ====== ====== ====== ======
Total 291.6m 100.0% 255.0m 100.0% +14.3%
·
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, April 24, 2008
Note: Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales
>> Strategy Analytics: Motorola, Sony Ericsson and Apple Lose Global Handset Marketshare in Q1 2008
Strategy Analytics
April 25 2008
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According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, global mobile handset shipments grew a healthy 14 percent year-over-year, to reach 282 million units in Q1 2008. Motorola, Sony Ericsson and Apple all lost marketshare.
Bonny Joy, Analyst at Strategy Analytics said, "Global handset shipments rose 14% annually, to 282 million units during Q1 2008. Emerging markets in Asia and Africa continue to surge and they are compensating for the sluggish demand in developed regions of North America and Western Europe."
Neil Mawston, Director at Strategy Analytics, added, "Motorola, Sony Ericsson and Apple suffered downturns. Motorola and Sony Ericsson lost marketshare to rivals with stronger handset portfolios, such as LG and Samsung, while Apple has been hit by stock-outs in North America and lackluster demand for its overpriced iPhone in Western Europe."
Other findings from Strategy Analytics' Q1 2008 Global Handset Market Share Update report include:
• Apple's global handset shipments fell sharply, from 2.3 million units in Q4 2007 to 1.7 million in Q1 2008. Apple's global marketshare declined for the first time, from 0.7% in Q4 2007 to 0.6% in Q1 2008.
• 2008 is shaping up to be the year of the Koreans. Improved handset portfolios enabled LG to grow at almost 4 times the annual industry average, while Samsung is growing over 2 times faster.
Global Mobile Handset Shipments and Marketshare - Top 5 (See Table Above) ###
>> Worldwide Mobile Phone Market Grows 14.3% Amid Economic Jitters, According to IDC
IDC Press Release
25 Apr 2008
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The worldwide mobile phone market experienced an expected sequential downturn in shipments following a busy holiday quarter. According to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, vendors shipped a total of 291.6 million units during the first quarter of 2008 (1Q08), down 11.6% from the 330.8 million units shipped during the previous quarter (4Q07) and up 14.3% from the 255.0 million units shipped during 1Q07. While the first quarter results are in line with IDC's 2008 forecast, concerns over the economy may negatively impact handset purchases as the year progresses.
“The mobile phone market will be under increased pressure from a number of factors that compete for users’ attention and wallets,” said Ramon T. Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Device Technology and Trends team. “Disposable income is being eroded by rising food and fuel prices and worries about global financial markets and slow economic growth are creating a cautious outlook for the months ahead. Against this backdrop, many emerging markets continue to offer tremendous growth potential and IDC expects highly competitive pricing and innovative service plans will keep the overall market on track for the year."
Demand for handsets in the low cost segment will remain present in certain emerging markets throughout 2008, driving worldwide shipment growth. In contrast, more mature regions are increasingly characterized by highly competitive markets for replacement handsets and somewhat slower shipment growth.
“As predicted, most mobile phone vendors experienced a lull in the first quarter of 2008 with the exception of LG,” said Ryan Reith, senior research analyst for IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker. “Continued growth in the low cost segment will mean average selling prices (ASPs) will be generally lower than in the past, but this will be balanced somewhat by further expansion in the converged mobile device or smartphone segment, especially in mature markets.”
Top Five Vendors
• Nokia once again outperformed its competitors, with total shipment volumes greater than those of the next three vendors’ combined. Keeping volumes at a high level were its entry level devices going into emerging markets, including its successful 1100 and 1200 series devices, while more fully featured devices like its 5310, 5610, and 6500 series and Nseries devices generated the most revenue and profit for Nokia. With a strong presence in emerging markets, Nokia is poised to capitalize on replacement handset opportunities in these markets.
• Samsung gained further clarity as the No. 2 vendor worldwide, building its largest margin yet against Motorola. Although shipments remained even from the holiday quarter, Samsung improved its presence within key emerging markets, balancing out against soft demand in Europe and North America. In the process its decreased marketing expenses, allowing for double-digit profitability. Samsung remains confident that it will reach its goal of 200 million units shipped this year, and look to more full featured devices to be released in the months to come.
• Motorola had a disappointing quarter, falling further behind Samsung and reaching shipment levels not seen since the second half of 2004. Gaps in its product portfolio left the company vulnerable, especially in the areas of music, touch, and messaging where other vendors have flourished with their own products. Further compounding its problems was another quarter of operating loss and lower operating margin. While the results speak to its ongoing difficulties, Motorola has been building a framework to turn its fortunes around with plans to separate the mobile devices business unit from the company and streamline its silicon and software platforms to bring new devices to the market later this year.
• LG Electronics capitalized on Sony Ericsson’s challenges to re-take the No. 4 position for the first time since the beginning of 2006. Thanks to the continued demand of its flagship feature phones, including the Viewty, Voyager, and Venus, LG bucked the trend of seasonal decrease in shipments. In addition, LG returned to double-digit profitability. Looking ahead, LG plans to grow its presence within emerging markets and ship more high-end devices next quarter.
• Sony Ericsson started off the year citing several challenges affecting its shipment volumes: diminished demand for its mid-range and high-end devices, channel inventory buildup, component shortages, and greater interest in low-price handsets in Asia/Pacific, an area where the company has not had a strong presence. Despite this dour news, the company hopes that its renewed focus on the North American market with the W350, W760, Z555, and XPeria along with several Cybershot, Walkman, and Web-ready devices around the globe will yield positive results later in the year.
Top Five Mobile Phone Vendors, Q1 2008 Results (See Table Above) ###
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