President Barack Obama Message Board

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Politics : President Barack Obama

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To: ChinuSFO who wrote (19411)	4/27/2008 10:42:42 PM
From: Nicholas Thompson	Read Replies (3) of 149317

Off subject a bit . Lets do the numbers ; Barack currently has 1491 delegates and 233 superdelegates for a total of 1724 needing 301 to win the nomination. hillary has 1333 delegates and 256 superdelegates for a total of 1589 , leaving 436 more to win the nomination. Since super tuesday Barack has picked up more than 75% of the additional pledging superdelegates, but to be very conservative lets say they split the remaining 306 unpledged superdelegates. At that point, Hillary would have 256 plus 153 or 409 superdelegates and total delegates of all types of 1742 and Barack would have 233 plus 153 super delegates or a total of 386 superdelegates and total delegates of all types of 1877. ---I should point out it is likely that barack will win at least 55% of the remaining superdelegates; probably at least 60%-- which makes the following scenario even more bleak for Hillary---- but i just use a 50/50 split of remaining superdelegates to show how he wins easily At this point we can see that Hillary would have to win at least 283 of the remaining 429 regular delegates to get to a win of 2025 delegates, while Barack only has to get 148 delegates from the remaining primaries to get to a win of 2025 delegates. We know Barack is likely to pick up at least 95 total delegates in North Carolina and Oregon, while hillary would get the other 72 delegates. Subtracting these sums from the needed delegates for each candidate leaves Hillary with 211 needed delegates from all the other contests and Barack needing only 53 delegates. Thus Hillary has to win 80% of the delegates from all the remaining states not including Oregon and North Carolina while Barack has only to win 20% of these states delegates; it is virtually impossible for hillary to win unless there is a miracle of some type. We already know that Barack will win a minimum of 44% of the Indiana delegates and a majority in the two western plains states. At this point hillary would have to win about 100% or more of the delegates in West virginia and Puerto Rico and Ky. This is not happening and she loses. My analysis is a bit out of time sequence but the premise holds. The press only keeps it alive to sell more ads and increase revenues. totally cynical.

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