This is George Soros' philosophy.
books.google.ca
books.google.ca
Perhaps George has people feeding him data, and it is armchair politics and armchair global planning. It sounds erudite, and I don't think George S. is stupid, however does he have any way out of the thorn bush the world has hung itself on in the last 40 years? It is fine to say this wicket or that is sticky or this course or that is dangerous but so is waiting around while Hitler built his armies. Solutions have to lead somewhere. The road is long.
People mistake a bit of military trouble for real danger. There is far more danger in the US and G7 countries declining economically than being embroiled in unsupportable wars. Hitler had a truly unsupportable war as he was faced on all sides by well prepared unreachable enemies. He had limited resources in fuel, manpower, both frontline and back home. It is no wonder his SS was brutal. Being spread that thin, and being naturally paranoid, people tend to brutal solutions. Like Attila they spread fear. But unlike Attila they drove away potential Allies. Attila had lots of people willing to fight Rome.
As Spengler always said, collapse of nations comes from within. We can go back 2000 years to Attila the Hun and Rome. When you have to buy people off, no matter how clever you are in doing that, no matter how masterful is your political stroke, no matter the deviousness of luring them into Gaul etc.. as was done, you are buying into weakness. Can we be comfortable, weak and effete and face enemy after enemy? This is a strange conundrum. It is interesting that the Soviets a much hardier nation grew tired of its 10 year long involvement in Afghanistan in the face of relatively light but pernicious and persistent guerrilla war with advanced US weapons. Now the US faces attrition in a very similar situation with similarly advanced weapons wearing away at patrols although they ostensibly control just about every part of the hinterland and urban centres. A very tiny force gave the Soviets a lot of trouble. How did they even get food and water? They were obviously camouflaged by a sympathetic outlier group. In the US case the guerrilla blends in with the urban group. They only come out at night with sinister purpose.
The trouble with the CDN mining industry overseas is that it is not Mitsubishi backed by Japanese dollars, nor is it GE and GM backed by US dollar and the Missouri. The US knows that to get into a 3rd world backwater with politics like Ecuador you have to have a stable regime. Barring a stable democratic regime, you need General Trujillo and his LA-SS keeping the native labour groups agreeable, whilst your Banana, Rubber, Coffee, Copper, Tin, and silver interests make money back home. After all the Morovians don't have refrigerated boats or 200 million people that eat Muckrakers Frosted Flakes every morning to ghostly jingles on the klystron propaganda machine. Need guns and training for them pesky rebels? No problem. The formula worked and was never seen as an evil slave empire. By the evil slave empire It made Auschwitz look like pikers. The fact that US people never vacationed in LA much and newspapers did not show Yanqui go Home* as the dominant slogan in LA kept the American public happy. The most brainwashed proletariat since Stalin.
How did the US "do it", in Canada? They simply bribed CDN politics. "Oh come on!", you say? No, they did that. When they negotiated with CDN politicians, they pointed out that they had the car market, and the food market, and the metal market in part, as well as they were right next door. Fund a Sea Way, a hydro dam or two, a mutual defense network? No problem. What's a billion? You make it suit our interests and we will make it suit your party platform. Keep the economic door open for US money to flow in and out and the rest is easy. I never saw an agreement on trade that benefited Canada. I never saw a US investment into Canada for defense, power, or industry that we had control of, or sold at world prices.
The final question is not where it has been but where is it all going. It is easy to see that LA is no China. All the resource in the world. Scant progress. Water, power, Metals, oil. But pitiful social organization. Mass poverty when all the wealth in the world surrounds them. The mightly Inca Empire with enviable roads, communication, social organization, cities, wealth ... in a contemporary social ruin. Health and welfare 19th century in many areas. Ditto exploitation of natural resources. Manufacturing? Fragmented and disparate/desparate in many places. Given the tiny population of Ecuador and their generous resources, and closeness to mass markets, it would be relatively easy for them to make good agreements with a border state to transport goods to the sea and make markets. Open the door politically to Asia and the US. It is the only economic road. Then start an orderly harvest, exploitation of resources at even a small scale, a bit of manufacturing, some specialization etc.. a socially stable and industrious population even 25% agricultural with a good outlook and education could earn 1/2 to 2/3's of a US income parity wise within 12 years. Will they? I don't think so. They have had 100 years to do it and not even close. Still a 19th century social organization. Still an ongoing geurrilla war in the woods. No roads, no resources no stepping into the 20th century except here and there. Eventually Chile will get there. If I lived in Santiago and worked in the mining industry as a Chilean with my present skill set I would earn more than I do now in parity dollars, almost as much as I would in Canada in real dollars and own my own home and perhaps a small business. No dump either. Surprising. The Chileans nationalized one industry, their refining of copper, with two of the largest mines. Probably a mistake in fact, but they opened the door to foreign money. They needed markets. Is the standard of living in Chile good, bad or indifferent? In some towns it is very good. Comparable to suburban living in the US from the 1950's. Not as rich but parity is fair. Certainly no Appalachia.
GDP (PPP) $234.4 billion (2007 est.) (46)
GDP growth 5.2% (2007 est.)
GDP per capita $14,400 (2007 est.)
GDP by sector agriculture: 4.9%, industry: 49.7%, services: 45.4% (2007 est.)
Surprised? Don't be.
Fine to say you can play Asia against the US, but why bother? Where will it get you? The facts are no one is going to invade Bolivia, or Ecuador to make them complete slaves to US economic policy. Co-option probably would not work either. Tney don't need to be standoffish? Standoffish for what purpose? Too keep out needed economic infrastructure? Markets? Technology? Where will that lead? It is apparent that the present admin of Vz, Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru are placating political forces within their countries, like Rome was placating Attila the Hun.
Does it make sense for them to tweak US nose while seeking markets otherplaces for their products? hmmmmm..
* The Ugly American - William J. Lederer
wwnorton.com
A Nation of Sheep. - same author
amazon.com
EC<:-} |
