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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold & Gold Stock Analysis

GLD 416.72

+1.2%

4:00 PM EST

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To: yard_man who wrote (13484)	4/29/2008 6:58:14 AM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (1) of 29622

"A resonable senario" We all pretty well know one thing about these markets - when you think you've got them figured out and know what's going to happen they fool you...There always seems to be something come along you hadn't fully anticipated that's the way to make money. So it seems increasingly anticipated that the Fed will end its rate easing pattern with this week's action and that ought to be somewhat positive for the dollar, and consequently not very good for metals and miners, which as we know have already had a fall from grace. But lets assume we are Europeans or from a rich ARAB country with lots of dollars which in the long term we don't really want and need to put somewhere that has some inflationary hedge, unlike government bonds which carry inflation risk and currency risk..The GOLD market is a bit thin for huge orders and its only 10% from an all time high. HOW ABOUT US STOCKS -especially international growth companies??? The chart below shows the S&P 500 in Euros. Its back to levels last seen in 2002-2005. The US market by that measure is prety cheap and it's liquid. If the credit crisis has been discounted by the best of US equities and the dollar is going to pause in its decline somewhat here for a while, do US stocks look like a good bet? stockcharts.com Will US stocks stuttered a moment when they consider the FED is done easing and then be lapped up by foreigners and institutions shifting out of bonds (and cash)?? I am wondering if that isn't quite a plausible senario... Notice the QQQQ is right up against a major downtrend line, now above the 200 day moving average...Risk would seem to be about 2.2 points down to 45...If you are foreign, looking in at the US market, is this the time to step in, especially if you haven't already??? stockcharts.com

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