After Wright, Obama's Stock Falls
WSJ.COM
In Campaign 2008
Nick Timiraos reports on the presidential race.
Political futures markets are showing some troubling signs for Barack Obama as he seeks to address?again?controversial comments from his longtime pastor.
Rather than seek to move past the controversy over his racially inflammatory remarks, Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. dug in yesterday in an hour-long speech at the National Press Club that was carried live by the cable networks.
In futures trading on Intrade, shares for Obama, which reflect his chances of winning, have fallen to nearly their lowest point in the last month, though they show that he still remains the clear favorite to win the nomination.
The market gave Obama a more than 86% chance of winning the nomination in early April, and that fell to 81% after his Pennsylvania primary loss last week. By Tuesday morning, his stock had fallen to 77%.
But more telling could be what the markets forecast in Indiana, a state expected to be close and one that both candidates believe they can win. Markets gave Obama a 53% chance of winning Indiana on the eve of the Pennsylvania primary. His stock plunged after the loss but recovered to around 49% by the end of the week. By Tuesday morning, his chances hovered in the low 30s.
At the airport in Wilmington, N.C., a small crowd had gathered around a CNN broadcast to watch Wright defend his case that the government had betrayed its black citizens and that an arrogant foreign policy had helped precipitate the Sept. 11 attacks. On Monday night, the cable channels devoted much of their coverage to Wright?s public campaign.
Of course, prediction markets show only a snapshot, but the trendlines can?t be assuring for the Obama campaign. Also today, Hillary Clinton picked up the endorsement of North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley, which could help shore up her operation in a state that favors Obama. |
