The True Contrarian Has Been Pounding the Table For a Dollar Rally since December 12, 2006. Scroll through the list of his newsletter's issues, going back that far. I feel sorry for this guy. He appears to have never acknowledged to himself how much the USD has lost in value since then, and keeps re-setting his call to claim that it's fresh. I actually think he's fooled himself.
truecontrarian.com
Meanwhile, we are currently in the third, notable Dollar Rally sing-a-long, of 2008. The first two accompanied moves higher in the USD index. This one, right here and right now, seems to come as the USD index is to my mind still near the lows. I can't find anyone who disagrees with the the view "that it's coming!" The eagerness to be part of the group making a prediction for a "huge" rally is rampant.
Currency theory is really interesting because new theories go in and out of vogue every few years: Growth Theory, Current Account Theory, Interest-Rate Differential Theory, PPP Theory, and so on. I feel like I've seen so many "rock stars" of the currency prediction business come and go, over the years.
My personal view is this: The USD has been following the housing market. Regardless, I'm certain that Washington does not want a higher USD, not yet. A tad higher. Sure.
Gregor |
