Chip, point-counter point gets boring except on the old 60 minutes shows and as previously suggested, nobody changes their mind anyway. But I must take issue with your statement that all "fundamental (sic) info you get your hands on is in the past". Not true partner. I do indeed look at historical (past) info which by definition fits your description. Mostly, I care about the management team and how long it has been together, if they tell the truth, how long employees hang around and whether they're happy campers, and of course the historical earnings and profits picture. If that hangs together, I am then interested in the future, and indeed, spend far more time trying to figure out out that part of the puzzle than any other part. Let me give you an example. I think one of the more interesting investment sectors comes under the heading of what I call "Cold War conversion technologies". Two companies in this category are Qualcomm and Loral. I happen to think that satellites will play a very large role in carrying communications traffic (all types, telephony, data, etc.). Wall Street is still skeptical, although waking up. Now if I'm "right", LOR is one very under -valued puppy. As my future perception becomes present fact, valuations will adjust accordingly for better or for worse. For the moment however, it's just me against them. This could be one answer to your question about who sold a large block of TLAB, i.e., just a guy with a different perception. And you know what? He, and you, and all the others who are short the common, short the calls, long the puts, etc. etc. may have made the right play. The market will render its verdict with typical harshness over the course of time. But either way, I will argue that that will be the result of flawed analysis by one of us as to the interpretation of FUTURE ORIENTED fundamental information . Anyway, with that and $.20 you can make a phone call (but not on a Qualcomm cell phone!) Regards, Mike Doyle
Texas, thanks for the kind words. Don't think I'd be a buyer of your TLAB puts but I can imagine you've made a bundle selling them! JMD |
