"For that reason, in the end, I think partition and separation of the groups is a better alternative than endless fighting."
The reason why it works in the US is that there is a general trust that the laws apply and not just affiliation with certain groups. This is weaker for blacks because that wasn't generally true in all areas of the country until fairly recently. These days, that is more the exception than the rule, but that change is pretty recent.
Well, as I have said before, the only real chance we have for a clean win is with a free Kurdistan. Now, we would have to base there and offer guarantees to both Turkey and Iran that we would contain the Kurdish freedom fighters/terrorists/whatever you call them, but we could pull that off. Basing there wouldn't be a big problem because, at least so far, they seem to understand that they would be under someone's heel if we hadn't of invaded. It is our only chance at rose petals. However, if we keep on excusing ourselves from the Turkey/Kurdistan problems, we might wind up blowing it even there.
That leaves Shiastan and Loserstan(tm Elroy).
Shiastan will be in Iran's orbit for the near term. Probably not for long, because they really aren't Iranian and they will be a relatively well off area. One of the problems that Iran has had for a while is that not only are they the only ME country that is dominated by a splinter sect of Islam, they also have a long and proud history. Almost as long as the people in Iraq. Saddam was planting the seeds of Iraqi superiority, and that will at some point collide with the Persian rock solid belief that they are superior to the camel herders. When that reaches a head, it could be very entertaining. But that will take a generation.
And that leaves us with Loserstan. They have no oil, they have little in arable land. They are, in fact, camel herders. Now, they are potential terrorists. Nothing to be done about that. And the Saudis will support them because they are Sunni. However, in general, they will be the Loserstan Palestine to the Shiastan Israel. They will be trying to bring back the old days when they got to wave the baton in Shiastan where the bulk of the population and the oil is. And Shiastan should be a softer target that Kurdistan.
So, assuming we have leadership with any brains, there will be a situation that can be managed. A unified Iraq is probably not possible. Especially one that is US positive. At least initially. We have Kurdistan in our pocket. Or, at least should. We can also lure Shiastan, but it will take time and a more, should I use the word, nuanced policy. Shiastan should be too wealthy to track with the mullahs in Iran. Sure, they will want to try it, but I doubt if they will accept second class citizenship. And that opens the option of eventually sucking Iran back into the orbit of the West. Because a Western-centric Shiastan will attract the middle and upper class Iranians. And that marginalizes the mullahs. With Iran, it all boils down to tomatoes and zucchini. Both have become central to Iranian cuisine. And both have been in short supply in recent years. Comfort food has an irrational attraction. If the ruling regime can't provide it, then there are problems. And tomatoes, in particular, are very difficult to come by in Iran. Foreign trade is an issue that can cause the ruling mullahs a lot of problems. If a Shiastan can readily get cheap tomatoes, then Iran will have their equivalent of a Boston Tea Party... |
