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Technology Stocks : Cistera Networks (CNWT)
CNWT 0.0006000.0%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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From: Lhn55/2/2008 9:56:11 AM
   of 122
 
From the Yahoo board...

messages.finance.yahoo.com

All stocks have risk... however the potential here is far greater than most would realize.

At first blush and on paper there's nothing terribly impressive (yet) to point to. Sales are quite modest and inexperienced management has made numerous blunders in the past with late filings and late earnings reports.

Often however, there's more than meets the eye to a story, and this is certainly the case here. We have a company with precious few shares outstanding and even less in the float... even the fully diluted share count numbers are remarkably low for a small company that has been struggling in a market sector that has taken years longer to develop than originally expected.

Usually you would expect to find a company like Cistera, mired in debt and with as many shares outstanding as their are stars in the sky... this is after all the normal outcome for small companies that have to keep printing shares and selling them to keep the doors open.

Instead we sit with only around 8 million shares out, probably less than 300,000 in the float and a fully diluted number less than 20 million when all is said and done. Coupled with incredibly high profit margins (75%+) you have a winning formula for Wall Street's rapid ascent award.

We have a small company with some key infrastructure programs for what has been a slow to develop voip market, that by most estimates will eventually be in the trillions of dollars. Exactly why big players like AT&T and Cisco are already staking out territory. This same small company is an infrastructure play for these big players and in fact Cistera has already forged partnerships and alliances with most of the major players in the space. This holds the potential for staggering growth.

As for the stock itself, one only needs glance at a 2 year chart to see how little volume there is. For those of us watching on a daily basis it often appears the company is the latest stealth program run by Boeing! There are basically no buyers and no sellers. From this one can glean that those in the know (existing shareholders) recognize something special here and aren't selling. You could also surmise that the Cistera story is only known to a select few who already bought the shares they want, hence no new buying... and by "no new buying" I of course mean precious few shares trade hands.

The company should earn nearly $1 per share EPS on just roughly 40 million in revenues, a target that should be reasonable to expect over the next three years. Again the key is the remarkably low share count. This low count will help Cistera arrive at incredible EPS numbers on relatively low revenue numbers. management believes they will eventually reach over 100 million in revenues which should be over $2.50 EPS. Multiply that times whatever PE ratio you imagine they might deserve and the numbers are incredibly intoxicating.

The wait has been longer than most early investors expected, but the signs are now obvious that the voip explosion the experts were expecting nearly two years ago, is finally at hand. The next three Qtrs should show explosive Qtr over Qtr growth and finally capture Wall Street's attention.

Mag
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