hello pezz, today's report:
(i) met with contractor early morning
(ii) had lunch with pals
(iii) watched an afternoon matinee “Iron Man” with office
(iv) heard about the afternoon Olympic torch run in Central CBD
(v) figuring a few threads of thought
- What was outrageous short positions are still on the high side 4+%, and a world of hurt will soon enough end, but end badly
- Inflation expectation is low to non-existent
- Most funds made zip dot zero YTD, and feeling poorly, almost desperate
- A lot of spins about, about the worst of debt crisis is over, and commodity inflation is no more
- Question: when a python swallows a boar, and the huge boar is 25% in through the throat, bulging, is the worst over or just getting started, for the python?
- J6P dare not buy bonds, newly cooled to real estate, and is being forced into shares by the usual suspects
- USA officialdom has been a worse fiscal/financial manager YTD than Bulgaria, buying huge % of its own newly issued sinful debt, but with no Plan B in mind for the inevitable end game
- Will folks and nations keep buying 10-years T-bills?
- But nothing goes down in a straight line, as far as empires go, even when they clip coins, water down funding, and dumb down citizens, not even the Roman Empire
(vi) Expect inflation expectation to rise, and commodities to power forth, at some juncture when the bear market rally is done, when most of the bears are whimpering and enough dead; 12% up, 8% to go, then flame out, and watch out below
(vii) Figure to buy gold at 800, and again at 780, and if fortunate, again and again below 780, and expect to count blessings
uncertainty, will gold move away from just the dollar or from all paper moneies
(viii) Fearful that, whatever the official responses to renewed bear market dynamics, all had been tried before, and the end result is always the same, absurdly higher yields, ridiculously cheap assets, and very expensive living and taxes, but that would be after the last round of gold selling
Chugs, tj |
