You obviously understand neither the physics of extraction
europe.theoildrum.com
nor the concept of depletion.
Ghawar, largest field in the world, is depleting at 8%. It was a 5MBPD field a few years ago. The first year of depletion, it only put out 4.6 M BPD, so we need an additional 400K barrels to stay even. This year it will drop another 368K BPD. Cantarell in Mexico, 2M BPD peak, is depleting at 16-20%. Another 320-400K BPD we needed to come up with last year, and another 270 K this year...just to stay even. North Sea has peaked, Russia just peaked, US peaked a long time ago.
By 2020, production will be down to 60-65M BPD. Just to stay even with current production, we are gonna have to find and develop, and bring on-line, 3 Ghawars or 5 Cantarells. Where are they? And staying even with current levels? Right now, there are 100 + regions in the world suffering energy shortages. energyshortage.org We need to do more than stay even.
By 2030, nobody will be exporting anymore...
Projected net exports from all five net exporters are shown in Figure 17, with an initial 10 year projected net export decline rate of -6.2%/year ±4%. Our middle case shows the top five approaching zero net exports in 2031, within a range from 2024 to 2039.
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