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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: TimF who wrote (248894)5/5/2008 6:17:17 PM
From: SirWalterRalegh  Read Replies (1) of 793896
 
The odds would depend on how often Obama missed on of the services (or missed part of a service including the sermon), and how often Wright made such sermons. Your assumptions don't give enough information to make the calculation, you assume 1 per year from Wright, but make no stated assumption on how many (or what percentage of) sermons Obama missed.

You are correct in noting there are a lot of variables. I tried to keep it simple by assuming only two things:
1. Rev. Wright only gave ONE incendiary sermon each year for 20 years.
2. Barack H. Obama NEVER heard Rev. Wright give an incendiary sermon.
Obama is on record saying this.

So where does 2 to the 20th power come from? An analogy would be flipping a coin...either it is heads or tails. Obama was either in attendance or he was absent.

For Obama to have missed the single incendiary sermon that occurred only once each year for 20 years is ~ 1 in a Million. (2 to the 20th power). It is like heads coming up 20 times in a row.

If there were 2,3.4. ...incendiary sermons each years the odds of Obama not being there are astronomical. Therefore, Obama is a proven liar.
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