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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: John Pitera who wrote (9319)5/5/2008 7:24:06 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
very serious Black Swan lurking in the agricultural bushes.

Yeah.. got his newsletter in email as well.. But I didn't quite understand what kind of "black swan" he was referring to.. He says that food prices will soar, but that's what the market anticipates.

If I understand the theory, the originator of the theory defined it as better against the prevailing market sentiment and taking risky counter bets on almost impossible market movements (like shorting prior to 9/11 in the midst of interest rate cuts, if I recall correctly)..

So what is he betting against with the market sentiment seemingly under the belief that agricultural prices will continue to climb inexorably. It would seem the "black swan" in the agri market would be buying cheap puts in anticipation of a commodities collapse.

Hawk
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