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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout
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From: SliderOnTheBlack5/6/2008 9:14:04 AM
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re: Dow Transports vs. Recession...

I spent nearly an hour recently talking with a regional manager
from "the" major trucking/transpo company in the US.

He said the following:

-- getting killed by the railroads.
-- absolutely not a single sign of improvement on the horizon.
-- fuel prices are killing them.
-- feedback from customers getting worse, not better.

Takeaway: Those bidding up the transports are doing it
purely on contrarian hope, and/or in anticipation of
something that those inside the industry have yet to see.

SOTB

PS: Imo, The credit crisis is tradeable,
but not yet investable.

And the reason why?

Because it's a solvency, not a liquidity crisis.

Continue to watch Fannie Mae as a barometer.

Housing is the Fed's number one worry here - not inflation.

Repeat that, and remember that.

One and done?

The Fed hopes so.

But, housing and job numbers will dictate that.

They're doing a good job fudging the job numbers, and the
street is buying it, but I don't think they'll have as
easy a time fudging the housing numbers.

In the next week, or so... I'll try to finish a very large
rant about gold and the inflation vs. deflation debate.
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