First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** The Beginning Of The End? Is today the last day on the campaign trail? Sure, there are six more contests beyond these two in Indiana and North Carolina. But after today, there will be more undeclared superdelegates (264) and more disputed delegates (366 in Florida and Michigan) for the campaigns to fight over than there will be delegates earned in the remaining primaries (217). Indeed, there's an argument to be made that after today, there are more delegates to be had INSIDE THE BELTWAY than out on the trail. So for all intents and purposes, today is the last shopping day of the primary season for the two Dems to impress the superdelegates on their issues. Can Obama hang tough with white voters, especially after the past two weeks? Can Clinton win any significant chunks of the black or youth vote? Those questions may not get answered fully today, but how each performs in their "road" game demographic tests will go a long way in pushing these supers in one direction or the other.
*** The Basics: At stake are a total of 187 pledged delegates -- 115 in North Carolina and 72 in Indiana. Polls open in North Carolina at 6:30 am ET and close at 7:30 pm ET. In Indiana, most polls open at 6:00 am ET and close at 6:00 pm ET, but because some parts of the state are in the Central Time Zone, the official poll closing time is 7:00 pm ET. And just to give you a sense of where the candidates think they're the strongest, Clinton holds her Election Night rally in Indianapolis, while Obama holds his in Raleigh, NC. Interestingly, however, Clinton seems to be on the upswing in North Carolina, and Obama seems on the upswing in Indiana. Yet both are likely to win on their "home" demographic courts. So what would the Vegas lines be today? Our guess: five points in each state, which should already be considered a perception victory for Clinton. But given the closet superdelegate support Obama seems to have, he's been given the benefit of the doubt with some if he simply wins North Carolina by, well, about five points. You'll know it will be a mediocre to bad night for Obama if his campaign has to talk about who won the most delegates tonight, rather than by how much they won each state.
*** How Big Is African-American Turnout? There's lots of chatter about the 40% of the early vote in North Carolina being African American. If that number somehow holds through Election Day voting, it would be an Obama blowout. But Obama folks caution that they saw this same phenomenon in Texas and found that they had simply moved Election Day voters to early voters. Other turnout numbers to watch for. Obama's performance among white voters in North Carolina. Will he get 30% or more? If so, he wins. If he drops below 30% of the white vote in that state, he'll be more reliant on a stronger African-American turnout. Meanwhile, in Indiana, don't underestimate the Chicago media market effect in the negative for Obama. Why? Local Chicago TV as been as obsessive -- if not more -- than the national media. No national media outlet, for instance, has asked their news helicopter to hover over Rev. Wright's house. How many Northwest Indiana households saw THAT?
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