SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (9323)5/6/2008 12:50:36 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (2) of 33421
 
CRUDE UPDATE---Hi Patrick, also when you look at the big commercial producers, many of them have been selling forward production for months if not years on end.

About 4 months ago, there was substantial discussion that the speculators where creating the top in crude because the forward months on the 10 year crude futures "Strip" were 20 to 25 bucks below the price of the near by month( which all most always has the greatest open interest) and yet prices have moved higher.

This was back when crude was around 100 and some of the contract 2 or 3 years out were trading at 75 to 77 a barrel. That was almost a 25% discount or decline being forecast by the market. Now there is only a maximum 12 dollar decline which on a base of 122 to 110 translates to a less than 10% decline in terms of the pricing discount anywhere on that forward crude strip.

And for good measure the very far dated month on the strip is quoted at 113. only a 7.3% discount, that is just about unprecedanted in my recollection. Not considering the price run up we have experienced and the theoretically way overbought levels for prices on a 2 , 3 , 6 or 12 months rate of change basis.

But make no mistake, there has been forward selling of crude by the commercials, (the actually producers of the energy complex)

John

what is totally amazing to me right now is that the entire 10 year forward crude futures curve does not have a single month priced under 110 a barrel. WOW..............

online.wsj.com

Crude Light Oil Comp. - nymex
Data retrieved at May 06 16:45:25 GMT • All quotes are in Greenwich Mean Time • Data provided by eSignal
Contract Month Last Chg Open High Low Volume OpenInt Exchange Date Time
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '08 122.34
2.37 119.90 122.49 119.33 182537 347081 NYME 05/06/08 16:15:24
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '08 121.94
2.47 119.35 122.02 118.85 53517 170147 NYME 05/06/08 16:15:11
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '08 121.40
2.56 118.65 121.40 118.28 17706 63454 NYME 05/06/08 16:14:33
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '08 120.74
2.48 115.00 120.87 115.00 8058 73916 NYME 05/06/08 16:10:58
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '08 120.20
2.47 117.55 120.21 117.55 3844 49343 NYME 05/06/08 16:14:04
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '08 119.66
2.44 118.01 119.82 117.19 1897 25498 NYME 05/06/08 16:11:07
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '08 119.27
2.53 116.66 119.36 116.24 16067 209760 NYME 05/06/08 16:15:16
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '09 118.50
2.29 116.25 118.60 116.25 655 28446 NYME 05/06/08 15:59:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '09 118.00
2.27 118.00 118.00 118.00 120 12567 NYME 05/06/08 15:59:41
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '09 117.53
2.25 117.53 117.53 117.53 51 12850 NYME 05/06/08 16:07:06
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '09 114.84 y
0 8272 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May '09 114.44 y
4 16757 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '09 116.38
2.32 113.20 116.38 113.20 473 24901 NYME 05/06/08 15:27:40
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '09 113.71 y
0 12240 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '09 113.39 y
0 5940 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '09 113.09 y
0 9413 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '09 112.83 y
0 5656 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '09 112.58 y
0 3726 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '09 114.58
2.20 109.50 114.65 109.50 5463 90295 NYME 05/06/08 16:05:08
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '10 112.11 y
0 9639 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '10 111.89 y
0 3158 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '10 111.69 y
0 6120 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '10 111.51 y
0 1448 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May '10 111.34 y
0 1983 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '10 111.18 y
0 25126 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '10 111.06 y
0 974 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '10 110.95 y
0 1040 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '10 110.84 y
0 3428 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '10 110.75 y
0 1089 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '10 110.66 y
0 949 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '10 112.85
2.23 107.00 112.85 107.00 2643 64197 NYME 05/06/08 16:14:31
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '11 110.53 y
0 702 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '11 110.46 y
0 475 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '11 110.39 y
0 357 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '11 110.33 y
0 347 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May '11 110.27 y
0 321 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '11 110.22 y
0 10242 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '11 110.18 y
0 369 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '11 110.15 y
0 22 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '11 110.12 y
0 516 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '11 110.10 y
0 39 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '11 110.09 y
0 276 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '11 112.00
1.88 108.35 112.50 108.35 805 28000 NYME 05/06/08 15:51:27
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '12 110.11 y
0 238 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '12 110.09 y
0 96 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '12 110.07 y
0 139 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '12 110.06 y
0 150 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May '12 110.06 y
0 197 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '12 110.06 y
0 3861 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '12 110.06 y
0 82 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '12 110.06 y
0 51 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '12 110.06 y
0 47 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '12 110.06 y
0 88 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '12 110.06 y
0 128 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '12 111.89
1.83 108.28 112.00 108.28 387 33729 NYME 05/06/08 14:36:51
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '13 110.05 y
0 561 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '13 110.06 y
0 115 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '13 110.07 y
0 60 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '13 110.08 y
0 60 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May '13 110.09 y
0 60 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '13 110.10 y
0 183 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '13 110.11 y
0 60 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '13 110.13 y
0 95 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '13 110.15 y
0 110 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '13 110.17 y
0 145 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '13 110.19 y
0 111 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '13 111.98
1.76 108.00 112.08 108.00 332 6849 NYME 05/06/08 14:39:39
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '14 110.34 y
0 50 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '14 112.25
1.76 109.40 112.36 109.40 205 6723 NYME 05/06/08 14:36:12
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '15 110.66 y
0 50 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '15 113.00
2.15 109.00 113.10 109.00 176 17008 NYME 05/06/08 15:29:00
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '16 111.10 y
0 50 NYME 05/05/08 18:42:25
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '16 113.00
1.62 109.21 113.25 109.21 1 3339 NYME 05/06/08 15:08:39
- Chart - Options - Quotes Save Quote Board
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News