Good stuff, but I really disagree with anyone who thinks that Bush and Cheney have a cabal to help the energy industry. We are talking about a global largely fungible product that is absolutely not controlled by the president and the VP. I was paid to study and analyze the Chinese economy, stock market energy markets etc for a couple of years recently. I personally worked it a Chinese national who gave a presentation at the Houston Federal Reserve Building where Arthur Yan gave the keynote speech to the United States Association for Energy Economics.
China's consumption of crude has risen 5 fold in the past 15 years and is increases on a year over year basis by several
just look at the chart on Page 10 of the report he gave China's increase in crude imports has gone from below 50 million Tons in 1990 to over 300 Million Tons by 2003-2004
usaee.org
bflchinafund.com
and energy consumption in China has simply exploded (increased) 400% since 2003. Other than the fact that we all know that China is making half of everything we buy in this country AND that they have accumulated 1.5 Trillion dollars in Currency Reserves..... The other thing that we KNOW is that they are building multiple cities with more skyscrapers than NYC, LA, London etc. These extraordinary infrastructure and manufacturing achievements would have been impossible with out the Chinese becoming a rival of the US in terms of Energy Consumption. This becomes all too real when we consider 3 year 5 year and 10 year rates of change in energy consumption in the US and then in China..... oh yes and India ....
In terms of energy policy, France gets 80% of it's electricity from nuclear generation. I was talking this weekend with a senior engineering friend from Fluor who was commenting that the US nuclear power plants that exist in the US where envisioned to have 4 or 5 additional plants near the existing ones. As a matter of fact, he has outlined how if we put together a company that bought the rights to build new nuke plants you get first mover advantage since there is it takes a couple of years to get the Regulatory go ahead and at that point you have the rights to sell to other energy companies at a really nice market up, or you actually start to raise money and partner with an existing energy company to build out the site. (Anyone who is really serious, can arrange to see a white paper from my colleauge from Fluor).
Also in the US, there is an industry in it's infancy that is engaging in a land grab where the power companies are racing to get solar panels on the roofs of homeowners in the parts of the country that get enough sun and meet other scalability requirements. You commit to getting the panels on your roof for a 3, 5 or 10 year commitment, get a guaranteed lock in on your electricity costs and then can profit on the margin as your home top panels put energy back into the grid. I am having lunch this week with my old college buddy who runs the Houston office of a power company that sells electricity directly to bigger industries, hospital networks etc here in Texas. (Those who are serious and might want to have us consult with you... show you the white papers, projections etc. and or partner to invest... certainly willing to do that)
Alternative energy continued..... the University of Texas has a pilot project that has these pumps off of Galveston, in the Gulf of Mexico. These fairly simply designed devices contract and expand with the tides and it generates energy.
Scotland already gets 19% of it's electricity generation from coastline based hydro and wind generation........ the new stuff is all coming and high prices make it economically viable.
read below article and I have a few more thoughts.
John
----------------------------------------------
en.wikipedia.org
The production of renewable energy in Scotland is an issue that has come to the fore in technical, economic, and political terms during the opening years of the 21st century.[1] The natural resource base for renewables is extraordinary by European, and even global standards. In addition to an existing installed capacity[a] of 1.3 Gigawatts (GW) of hydro-electric schemes, Scotland has an estimated potential of 36.5 GW of wind and 7.5 GW of tidal power, 25% of the estimated total capacity for the European Union and up to 14 GW of wave power potential, 10% of EU capacity.[2][3] The renewable electricity generating capacity may be 60 GW or more, considerably greater than the existing capacity from all Scottish fuel sources of 10.3 GW.[2][4]
Much of this potential remains untapped, but continuing improvements in engineering are enabling more of the renewable resources to be utilised. Fears regarding "peak oil" and climate change have driven the subject high up the political agenda and are also encouraging the use of various biofuels. Although the finances of many projects remain either speculative or dependent on subsidies, it is probable that there has been a significant, and in all likelihood long-term change, in the underpinning economics.[5]
In addition to planned increases in both large-scale generating capacity and microsystems using renewable sources, various related schemes to reduce carbon emissions are being researched.[6] Although there is significant support from the public, private and community-led sectors, concerns about the effect of the technologies on the natural environment have been expressed. There is also an emerging political debate about the relationship between the siting, and the ownership and control of these widely distributed resources.[7]
.........
Realisation of the potential
In January 2006 the total installed electrical generating capacity from all forms of renewable energy was less than 2 GW, about a fifth of the total electrical production.[4] By January 2007 wind power capacity, which has been growing rapidly, reached 1 GW capacity, and the total for renewables had grown to over 2.3 GW.[8] By the end of the year renewables are expected to contribute 19% of total electrical production,[9] about 4% of all energy usage.[10] It should be borne in mind that electricity production is only part of the overall energy use budget. In 2002, Scotland consumed a total of 175 Terawatt-hours (TWh)[11] of energy in all forms, some 2% less than in 1990. Of this, only 20% was consumed in the form of electricity by end users, the great majority of energy utilised being from the burning of oil (41%) and gas (36%).[12][13]
Scotland also has significant quantities of fossil fuel deposits, including 62.4% of the EU's proven reserves of oil, 12.5% of the EU's proven reserves of gas and 69% of UK coal reserves.[3] Nonetheless, the Scottish Government has set ambitious targets for renewable energy production. The aim is for 18% of Scotland's electricity production to be generated by renewable sources by 2010, rising to 40% by 2020.[14]
An important reason for this ambition is growing international concern about human-induced climate change. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution's proposal that carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced by 60% was incorporated into the UK government's 2003 Energy White Paper.[2] The 2006 Stern Review proposed a 55% reduction by 2030.[15] The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report[16] has further increased the profile of the issue.[17]
[edit] Wind power
BFL Associates is pleased to announce the addition of Arthur Yan to our BFL China Team. Mr. Yan is returning to his native city of Beijing and is working with BFL Associates on our China initiatives.
Mr. Yan gave the keynote presentation at the January 11th meeting of the Houston Chapter of the United States Association for Energy Economics.
Why China can go big Globally? and it's implication for foreign companies |
