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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: The Ox who wrote (9341)5/7/2008 2:39:52 AM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (2) of 33421
 
The Democrats do not want to drill in the Anwar reserve..... that right there would do more to create a higher percentage of US crude production. My father and I have talked about Anwar and the lack of political interest to drill there. We came to the consensus that it's been keep back as some type of emergency reserves over a period of time if Hubbert Peak global Oil output number starts to look more and more correct.

M. King Hubbert first used the theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His model, now called Hubbert peak theory, has since been used to predict the peak petroleum production of many other countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures.

Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to have negative implications for the global economy. Although predictions as to what exactly these negative effects will be vary greatly, "a growing number of oil-industry chieftains are endorsing an idea long deemed fringe: The world is approaching a practical limit to the number of barrels of crude oil that can be pumped every day."[1]
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