My father and I have talked about Anwar and the lack of political interest to drill there. We came to the consensus that it's been keep back as some type of emergency reserves over a period of time if Hubbert Peak global Oil output number starts to look more and more correct.
John, I disagree about keeping ANWR as a "reserve". It's politics, pure and simple. We have the eco-liberals who don't believe that Alaska is the last pristine frontier, and that oil drilling endangers wildlife. And, of course, there's the alternative fuel crowd that think drilling ANWR would undermine the inevitable trend towards non-fossil fuel energy. That's a political point that resonates with the American public and Bush obviously doesn't want to give the Democrats any more ammunition to use against him. I imagine he believes that market forces will eventually support his argument that ANWR must be exploited.
But for those who bother to research the issue, or just bother to look at the pictures of ANWR, there is relatively little danger of harming any large portion of the region. Furthermore, as past experience has shown, the Porcupine Caribou population will actually INCREASE due to man's presence in the region, since the herds locate their birthing grounds near man-made facilities, which predators avoid.
As for "peak oil".. I think the previous argument was based upon demand remaining relative stable, but that is clearly no longer the case. With China, India, and a whole host of developing nations now competing for fossil fuels, production can't keep up with demand.
That audio link that was posted recently had a mention that refining capacity already exceeds oil production globally, and the speaker claimed that was the reason that refinery profits were so strained. Still trying to verify that data, but it does provide an interesting point.. You can build all the refineries you want, but if the supply of oil doesn't keep pace with that capacity, it won't make a difference to global energy prices and it will render refiners unprofitable as they compete to find sufficient oil from the global markets.
Hawk |
