According to Digitimes, the number of manufacturers that can play important roles and hold large capacity in future DRAM industry is no more than three to four. Compared to past situation that ten more suppliers dominated the industry, the number has been very small. Analysts indicated that DRAM market is going to enter oligopolistic era and the price and profit will be stabilized.
Looking back on past DRAM industry, when the market condition went devastated, integration unrest would be undertaken. Take the integration in 2001 global DRAM market for example, DRAM price trend turned from mighty vigorous to bottom out, forcing DRAM manufacturers in Japan and Korea to integrate. Elpida was formed by NEC and Hitachi at that time, and Hyundai and LG were forced to be united into Hynix.
Currently, history repeats itself again, DRAM weak pricing last year brings on the integration unrest in 2008.
The cooperation between Elpida and ProMos established.
Elpida and Qimonda signed MOU, developing 4F² DRAM Cell together.
SMIC quit standard DRAM foundry market.
Qimonda announced to rescind its contract with Macronix to develop Nand Flash together, aiming to focus on the research and development of DRAM product.
Micron and Nanya declared to investigate process technology under 50nm together and to establish joint venture.
After the integration unrest in 2008, it is quite possible that only Samsung, Elpida and Micron could still hold position in the DRAM market and Hynix would possibly be tumbled, according to Digitimes.
Among these leading manufacturers, Samsung would possibly maintain its self development strategy; Elpida on the other hand would expand its alignment team. Except for current member Rexchip and PSC, ProMos, Qimonda and Winbond would possibly be connected in Elpida’s cooperation camp in near future. Nanya is in Micron camp, and Inotera would be very possible to enter.
It is sure at least that in the future, DRAM capacity would be held in these three or four groups, DRAM industry will enter oligopolistic Era and the market tends to be stabilized.
dramexchange.com |
